Monastir: Dali Blanch vs Marko Topo

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Dali Blanch (50%) · Dali Blanch at 53¢ · $803 held · ends Nov 16

Dali Blanch53¢Marko Topo47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dali Blanch

Consensus Traders

Dali Blanch 50%

Total Value

$802.52

Combined PnL

$16.48

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 53¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDali Blanch at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dali Blanch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dali Blanch53%

Marko Topo47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dali Blanch4 traders

Total Value$605.09

Total Shares1,116

Combined PnL+$35.17

Marko Topo4 traders

Total Value$197.42

Total Shares392

Combined PnL-$18.7

Dali Blanch — 50%Marko Topo — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Dali Blanch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperDali Blanch 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDali Blanch 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Marko Topo 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Dali Blanchavg 51.4¢	$330.5	$343.6	+$13.1	36% 86-155 (241)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Dali Blanchavg 48.6¢	$222.01	$244.5	+$22.49	1% 1-81 (82)
0xheavy888CTR	Marko Topoavg 52¢	$150.59	$134.66	-$15.93	68% 30-14 (44)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Marko Topoavg 51¢	$35.74	$34.3	-$1.57	52% 271-247 (518)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Marko Topoavg 48.8¢	$24.39	$23.25	-$1.14	42% 28-38 (66)
SE sentrio<$100	Dali Blanchavg 53¢	$13.87	$13.39	-$0.48	24% 59-185 (244)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Marko Topoavg 48¢	$5.27	$5.21	-$0.06	26% 97-281 (378)
VeryLucky888<$100	Dali Blanchavg 52¢	$3.54	$3.61	+$0.07	50% 76-76 (152)

omnibus-076daa

Dali Blanch

Invested

$330.5

Value

$343.6

PnL

+$13.1

Record

36%

86-155 (241)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Dali Blanch

Invested

$222.01

Value

$244.5

PnL

+$22.49

Record

1-81 (82)

0xheavy888CTR

Marko Topo

Invested

$150.59

Value

$134.66

PnL

-$15.93

Record

68%

30-14 (44)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Marko Topo

Invested

$35.74

Value

$34.3

PnL

-$1.57

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Marko Topo

Invested

$24.39

Value

$23.25

PnL

-$1.14

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

sentrio<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$13.87

Value

$13.39

PnL

-$0.48

Record

24%

59-185 (244)

VenusianCTR<$100

Marko Topo

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$0.06

Record

26%

97-281 (378)

VeryLucky888<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

76-76 (152)

Research grade

NeutralDali Blanch at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Dali Blanch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Dali Blanch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperDali Blanch 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDali Blanch 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Marko Topo 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dali Blanch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.