Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dali Blanch, while the market favors Lorenzo Giustino (57%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Monastir: Dali Blanch vs Lorenzo Giustino

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Dali Blanch (80%) · Dali Blanch at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Dali Blanch43¢Lorenzo Giustino57¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dali Blanch

Consensus Traders

Dali Blanch 80%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$5.53

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 42.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDali Blanch at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dali Blanch

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Lorenzo Giustino 57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dali Blanch43%

Lorenzo Giustino57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Giustino2 traders

Total Value$635.36

Total Shares1,105

Combined PnL+$5.83

Dali Blanch8 traders

Total Value$902.62

Total Shares2,138

Combined PnL-$0.3

Lorenzo Giustino — 20%Dali Blanch — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Dali Blanch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lorenzo Giustino) and the top 1000 (9 on Dali Blanch) disagree here.

ctrDali Blanch 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Giustino 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Dali Blanch 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 57¢	$635.6	$611.96	+$5.83	52% 746-692 (1438)
nigiri99CTR	Dali Blanchavg 42¢	$408.24	$408.24	+$0	52% 349-325 (674)
SU suntoriCTR	Dali Blanchavg 43¢	$211.12	$208.67	-$2.45	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Dali Blanchavg 42¢	$101.14	$102.35	+$1.2	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Dali Blanchavg 42¢	$67.2	$68	+$0.8	43% 65-87 (152)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Dali Blanchavg 42¢	$56.19	$56.19	+$0	33% 544-1120 (1664)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Dali Blanchavg 42¢	$42.71	$42.71	+$0	32% 524-1097 (1621)
0xheavy888<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 57¢	$23.4	$23.4	-$0	54% 270-232 (502)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Dali Blanchavg 42¢	$13.02	$13.17	+$0.15	49% 1071-1124 (2195)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Dali Blanchavg 42¢	$3.3	$3.3	+$0	32% 530-1111 (1641)

VeryLucky888

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$635.6

Value

$611.96

PnL

+$5.83

Record

52%

746-692 (1438)

nigiri99CTR

Dali Blanch

Invested

$408.24

Value

$408.24

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

349-325 (674)

suntoriCTR

Dali Blanch

Invested

$211.12

Value

$208.67

PnL

-$2.45

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

FlaznorpCTR

Dali Blanch

Invested

$101.14

Value

$102.35

PnL

+$1.2

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

efntrickCTR<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$67.2

Value

$68

PnL

+$0.8

Record

43%

65-87 (152)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$56.19

Value

$56.19

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

544-1120 (1664)

LimousinCTR<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$42.71

Value

$42.71

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

524-1097 (1621)

0xheavy888<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$23.4

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

270-232 (502)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$13.02

Value

$13.17

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

1071-1124 (2195)

VenusianCTR<$100

Dali Blanch

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

530-1111 (1641)

Research grade

NeutralDali Blanch at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dali Blanch

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Lorenzo Giustino 57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Dali Blanch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lorenzo Giustino) and the top 1000 (9 on Dali Blanch) disagree here.

ctrDali Blanch 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Giustino 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Dali Blanch 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dali Blanch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.