Hersonissos 3: Robin Bertrand vs Henry Searle
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Henry Searle (33%) · Henry Searle at 73¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Henry Searle
3
Henry Searle 33%
1 arb excluded
$287.42
$2.6
Research grade
NeutralHenry Searle at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Henry Searleavg 71.3¢ | $155.46 | $159.14 | +$3.68 | 56% 119-94 (213) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Henry Searleavg 70.9¢ | $96.9 | $97.19 | +$0.29 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
| └ Henry Searle leg | Henry Searleavg 70.9¢ | $66.61 | $68.58 | +$1.98 | |
| └ Robin Bertrand leg | Robin Bertrandavg 28.6¢ | $30.29 | $28.6 | -$1.69 | |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 28¢ | $19.04 | $18.36 | -$0.68 | 52% 128-119 (247) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 28.8¢ | $13.13 | $12.73 | -$0.4 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
0xheavy888Invested
$155.46
Value
$159.14
PnL
+$3.68
Record
56%
119-94 (213)
Invested
$96.9
Value
$97.19
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Both legs:
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$19.04
Value
$18.36
PnL
-$0.68
Record
52%
128-119 (247)
Invested
$13.13
Value
$12.73
PnL
-$0.4
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.