Hersonissos 3: Remy Bertola vs Lorenzo Carboni

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Remy Bertola (79%) · Remy Bertola at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Remy Bertola52¢Lorenzo Carboni48¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Remy Bertola

Consensus Traders

Remy Bertola 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$940.41

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 51.5¢

-22% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralRemy Bertola at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Remy Bertola

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Remy Bertola52%

Lorenzo Carboni49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Remy Bertola11 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,569

Combined PnL-$68.83

Lorenzo Carboni3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,691

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Remy Bertola — 79%Lorenzo Carboni — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Remy Bertolaavg 68¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$35.75	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lorenzo Carboniavg 27.8¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$678.86	50% 1384-1403 (2787)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Lorenzo Carboniavg 28.7¢	$508.2	$798.3	+$329.14	15% 60-331 (391)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 67.1¢	$459.42	$281.47	-$75.94	24% 205-638 (843)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 49¢	$142.58	$141.13	-$1.45
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 67.1¢	$182.73	$140.35	-$74.49
TH thirdt1me	Remy Bertolaavg 57.5¢	$413.45	$272.33	-$48.07	34% 57-112 (169)
DA darkumbreon88	Remy Bertolaavg 71¢	$187.95	$189.28	+$1.32	61% 891-567 (1458)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 38.1¢	$108.66	$113.83	+$5.17	32% 278-586 (864)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 38.1¢	$61.85	$78.79	+$16.93
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 68.8¢	$46.8	$35.04	-$11.77
LI Limousin	Remy Bertolaavg 60.6¢	$120.93	$102.8	-$18.13	24% 201-643 (844)
0xheavy888<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 71¢	$93.03	$93.69	+$0.66	56% 100-79 (179)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 65.6¢	$97.91	$89.41	-$8.5	56% 3777-2945 (6722)
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 65.6¢	$77.5	$54.94	-$22.56
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 31.7¢	$20.41	$34.47	+$14.06
BA babybells	Remy Bertolaavg 59.9¢	$107.75	$83.7	-$24.05	15% 65-357 (422)
LR lryyy<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 64¢	$56.32	$55	-$1.32	50% 128-129 (257)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 71.7¢	$42.95	$42.83	-$0.12	34% 164-316 (480)
MA MadridTime<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 71.2¢	$55.61	$40.21	-$15.4	25% 203-621 (824)
38 38791873984189<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 46¢	$38.57	$38.99	+$0.42	48% 752-814 (1566)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 27¢	$22.37	$23.62	+$1.24	52% 51-48 (99)
LI LightParadox<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 69¢	$22	$22.11	+$0.11	24% 202-633 (835)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Remy Bertola

Invested

$2,112.36

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$35.75

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

FlaznorpCTR

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,233.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$678.86

Record

50%

1384-1403 (2787)

thestingsnakeCTR

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$508.2

Value

$798.3

PnL

+$329.14

Record

15%

60-331 (391)

VenusianARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$459.42

Value

$281.47

PnL

-$75.94

Record

24%

205-638 (843)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$142.5849¢-$1.45

Remy Bertola$182.7367.1¢-$74.49

thirdt1me

Remy Bertola

Invested

$413.45

Value

$272.33

PnL

-$48.07

Record

34%

57-112 (169)

darkumbreon88

Remy Bertola

Invested

$187.95

Value

$189.28

PnL

+$1.32

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$108.66

Value

$113.83

PnL

+$5.17

Record

32%

278-586 (864)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$61.8538.1¢+$16.93

Remy Bertola$46.868.8¢-$11.77

Limousin

Remy Bertola

Invested

$120.93

Value

$102.8

PnL

-$18.13

Record

24%

201-643 (844)

0xheavy888<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$93.03

Value

$93.69

PnL

+$0.66

Record

56%

100-79 (179)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$97.91

Value

$89.41

PnL

-$8.5

Record

56%

3777-2945 (6722)

Both legs:

Remy Bertola$77.565.6¢-$22.56

Lorenzo Carboni$20.4131.7¢+$14.06

babybells

Remy Bertola

Invested

$107.75

Value

$83.7

PnL

-$24.05

Record

15%

65-357 (422)

lryyy<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$56.32

Value

$55

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$42.95

Value

$42.83

PnL

-$0.12

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

MadridTime<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$55.61

Value

$40.21

PnL

-$15.4

Record

25%

203-621 (824)

38791873984189<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$38.57

Value

$38.99

PnL

+$0.42

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$22.37

Value

$23.62

PnL

+$1.24

Record

52%

51-48 (99)

LightParadox<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$22

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

24%

202-633 (835)

Research grade

NeutralRemy Bertola at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Remy Bertola

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Remy Bertola wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.