Hersonissos 3: Karim Bennani vs Sumit Nagal

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Sumit Nagal (58%) · Sumit Nagal at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Karim Bennani<1¢Sumit Nagal>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sumit Nagal

Consensus Traders

Sumit Nagal 58%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$87.38

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 99.9¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralSumit Nagal at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sumit Nagal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Karim Bennani0%

Sumit Nagal100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sumit Nagal11 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,442

Combined PnL+$105.68

Karim Bennani8 traders

Total Value$661.68

Total Shares7,342

Combined PnL-$193.06

Sumit Nagal — 58%Karim Bennani — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sumit Nagalavg 96.2¢	$864.53	$878.97	+$14.44	50% 1383-1403 (2786)
LI LightParadox	Sumit Nagalavg 90.7¢	$517.96	$568.43	+$50.47	24% 202-632 (834)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Karim Bennaniavg 9.2¢	$351.79	$365.23	+$13.43	54% 1605-1351 (2956)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sumit Nagalavg 92.9¢	$259.14	$256.19	-$2.96	56% 3777-2944 (6721)
TH thirdt1me	Sumit Nagalavg 88¢	$176	$190.57	+$20.97	33% 56-112 (168)
0xheavy888	Sumit Nagalavg 74¢	$152.32	$170.85	+$18.53	56% 99-79 (178)
VeryLucky888CTR	Karim Bennaniavg 24.7¢	$268.92	$163.64	-$105.29	48% 214-230 (444)
VE Venusian	Sumit Nagalavg 98¢	$151.15	$150.42	-$0.73	24% 205-637 (842)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Karim Bennaniavg 7.1¢	$90.71	$95.59	+$4.89	48% 733-802 (1535)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 90.4¢	$65.56	$69.22	+$3.66	15% 60-330 (390)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 74¢	$42.81	$48.02	+$5.21	61% 891-567 (1458)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Karim Bennaniavg 26¢	$54.34	$31.35	-$22.99	52% 122-112 (234)
BA babybells<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 88¢	$29.71	$26.56	-$3.15	15% 64-357 (421)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 89.5¢	$17.9	$19.9	+$2	12% 59-452 (511)
MA MadridTime<$100	Sumit Nagalavg 98¢	$12.47	$9.74	-$2.73	25% 203-620 (823)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Karim Bennaniavg 10.2¢	$86.98	$4.24	-$82.73	24% 201-642 (843)
RN1CTR<$100	Karim Bennaniavg 2.1¢	$1.15	$1.2	+$0.05	58% 3746-2702 (6448)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Karim Bennaniavg 11¢	$6.6	$0.35	+$1.02	18% 107-477 (584)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Karim Bennaniavg 9¢	$1.53	$0.09	-$1.45	52% 51-47 (98)

Flaznorp

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$864.53

Value

$878.97

PnL

+$14.44

Record

50%

1383-1403 (2786)

LightParadox

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$517.96

Value

$568.43

PnL

+$50.47

Record

24%

202-632 (834)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Karim Bennani

Invested

$351.79

Value

$365.23

PnL

+$13.43

Record

54%

1605-1351 (2956)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$259.14

Value

$256.19

PnL

-$2.96

Record

56%

3777-2944 (6721)

thirdt1me

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$176

Value

$190.57

PnL

+$20.97

Record

33%

56-112 (168)

0xheavy888

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$152.32

Value

$170.85

PnL

+$18.53

Record

56%

99-79 (178)

VeryLucky888CTR

Karim Bennani

Invested

$268.92

Value

$163.64

PnL

-$105.29

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

Venusian

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$151.15

Value

$150.42

PnL

-$0.73

Record

24%

205-637 (842)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Karim Bennani

Invested

$90.71

Value

$95.59

PnL

+$4.89

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

thestingsnake<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$65.56

Value

$69.22

PnL

+$3.66

Record

15%

60-330 (390)

darkumbreon88<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$42.81

Value

$48.02

PnL

+$5.21

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Karim Bennani

Invested

$54.34

Value

$31.35

PnL

-$22.99

Record

52%

122-112 (234)

babybells<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$29.71

Value

$26.56

PnL

-$3.15

Record

15%

64-357 (421)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$17.9

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$2

Record

12%

59-452 (511)

MadridTime<$100

Sumit Nagal

Invested

$12.47

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$2.73

Record

25%

203-620 (823)

LimousinCTR<$100

Karim Bennani

Invested

$86.98

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$82.73

Record

24%

201-642 (843)

RN1CTR<$100

Karim Bennani

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

3746-2702 (6448)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Karim Bennani

Invested

$6.6

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$1.02

Record

18%

107-477 (584)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Karim Bennani

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.45

Record

52%

51-47 (98)

Research grade

NeutralSumit Nagal at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sumit Nagal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sumit Nagal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.