Rolex Paris Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Lorenzo Sonego

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Mattia Bellucci (82%) · Mattia Bellucci at 76¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 9

Mattia Bellucci76¢Lorenzo Sonego24¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Mattia Bellucci

Consensus Traders

Mattia Bellucci 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$31.29

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 75.5¢

+26% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateMattia Bellucci at 76%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mattia Bellucci

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mattia Bellucci76%

Lorenzo Sonego25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mattia Bellucci9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares7,600

Combined PnL+$5.63

Lorenzo Sonego2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,131

Combined PnL+$25.65

Mattia Bellucci — 82%Lorenzo Sonego — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 57¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	+$79.52	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 57¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$87.9
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 41¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$8.38
0X 0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792	Mattia Bellucciavg 59¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$25.83	45% 258-317 (575)
RN1CTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 41¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$25.58	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
1L 1lovejump	Mattia Bellucciavg 73¢	$483.99	$487.31	+$3.31	53% 682-607 (1289)
FL Flaznorp	Mattia Bellucciavg 57¢	$456.57	$468.59	+$12.01	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
MR MrBently	Mattia Bellucciavg 58¢	$446.42	$450.27	+$3.85	53% 557-496 (1053)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 34.8¢	$415.33	$421.63	+$6.3	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 57¢	$199.49	$257.24	+$57.75
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 34.8¢	$215.83	$164.38	-$51.45
0xheavy888<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 57¢	$62.7	$70.4	+$7.7	56% 7468-5986 (13454)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 56¢	$28	$32	+$4	54% 5910-4956 (10866)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 73¢	$22.52	$22.67	+$0.15	60% 4155-2786 (6941)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 41¢	$5.67	$5.74	+$0.07	61% 13851-8756 (22607)
FL flatbarrel<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.28	+$0.23	58% 2767-1980 (4747)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 58¢	$4.84	$2.67	+$0.21	46% 471-546 (1017)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$3,542.23

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$79.52

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$2,004.1157¢+$87.9

Lorenzo Sonego$1,254.3641¢-$8.38

0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$3,048.33

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$25.83

Record

45%

258-317 (575)

RN1CTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2,097.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$25.58

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

1lovejump

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$483.99

Value

$487.31

PnL

+$3.31

Record

53%

682-607 (1289)

Flaznorp

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$456.57

Value

$468.59

PnL

+$12.01

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

MrBently

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$446.42

Value

$450.27

PnL

+$3.85

Record

53%

557-496 (1053)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$415.33

Value

$421.63

PnL

+$6.3

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$199.4957¢+$57.75

Lorenzo Sonego$215.8334.8¢-$51.45

0xheavy888<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$62.7

Value

$70.4

PnL

+$7.7

Record

56%

7468-5986 (13454)

Eulhunter<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$28

Value

$32

PnL

+$4

Record

54%

5910-4956 (10866)

thestingsnake<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$22.52

Value

$22.67

PnL

+$0.15

Record

60%

4155-2786 (6941)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.07

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

flatbarrel<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

2767-1980 (4747)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$4.84

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.21

Record

46%

471-546 (1017)

Research grade

Research candidateMattia Bellucci at 76%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mattia Bellucci

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mattia Bellucci wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.