Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cosme de Ravel, while the market favors Mattia Bellucci (78%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Cosme de Ravel

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Cosme de Ravel (85%) · Cosme de Ravel at 23¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 17

Mattia Bellucci78¢Cosme de Ravel22¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cosme de Ravel

Consensus Traders

Cosme de Ravel 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$382.22

Smart Money Entry

19.7¢ → 22.5¢

+14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidCosme de Ravel at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cosme de Ravel

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Mattia Bellucci 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mattia Bellucci78%

Cosme de Ravel23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cosme de Ravel11 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares20,493

Combined PnL+$382.73

Mattia Bellucci2 traders

Total Value$43.6

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$0.5

Cosme de Ravel — 85%Mattia Bellucci — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Cosme de Ravelavg 19.3¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$322.1	58% 3746-2703 (6449)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$17.57	54% 1606-1351 (2957)
└ Cosme de Ravel leg	Cosme de Ravelavg 21.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$38.89
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 79¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$21.31
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 79¢	$807.52	$807.73	+$50.02	50% 1384-1403 (2787)
└ Mattia Bellucci leg	Mattia Bellucciavg 79¢	$468.66	$459.82	-$8.84
└ Cosme de Ravel leg	Cosme de Ravelavg 19¢	$293.79	$347.91	+$58.86
LI LimousinCTR	Cosme de Ravelavg 21¢	$613.6	$627.22	+$34.62	24% 201-643 (844)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cosme de Ravelavg 19.4¢	$297.53	$313.7	+$16.17	48% 752-814 (1566)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cosme de Ravelavg 21¢	$210.01	$215.52	+$5.51	48% 215-230 (445)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 22¢	$90.27	$92.32	+$2.05	25% 203-621 (824)
machinelearned<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 79¢	$39.5	$39.25	-$0.25	32% 278-586 (864)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21¢	$63.68	$25.26	+$1.09	15% 60-331 (391)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 22¢	$13.36	$13.55	+$0.19	56% 3777-2945 (6722)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 22¢	$13.2	$12.9	-$0.3	48% 407-443 (850)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 19¢	$9.5	$10.75	+$1.25	52% 51-48 (99)
VE Venusian<$100	Mattia Bellucciavg 82¢	$4.6	$4.35	-$0.25	24% 205-638 (843)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.15	+$0.05	12% 59-453 (512)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cosme de Ravelavg 21.5¢	$2.15	$2.15	-$0	23% 142-486 (628)

RN1CTR

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$2,863.34

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$322.1

Record

58%

3746-2703 (6449)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$2,592.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$17.57

Record

54%

1606-1351 (2957)

Both legs:

Cosme de Ravel$1,469.5221.9¢+$38.89

Mattia Bellucci$1,122.5979¢-$21.31

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$807.52

Value

$807.73

PnL

+$50.02

Record

50%

1384-1403 (2787)

Both legs:

Mattia Bellucci$468.6679¢-$8.84

Cosme de Ravel$293.7919¢+$58.86

LimousinCTR

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$613.6

Value

$627.22

PnL

+$34.62

Record

24%

201-643 (844)

38791873984189CTR

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$297.53

Value

$313.7

PnL

+$16.17

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$210.01

Value

$215.52

PnL

+$5.51

Record

48%

215-230 (445)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$90.27

Value

$92.32

PnL

+$2.05

Record

25%

203-621 (824)

machinelearned<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$39.5

Value

$39.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

32%

278-586 (864)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$63.68

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$1.09

Record

15%

60-331 (391)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$13.36

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$0.19

Record

56%

3777-2945 (6722)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$13.2

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

407-443 (850)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

51-48 (99)

Venusian<$100

Mattia Bellucci

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.25

Record

24%

205-638 (843)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

12%

59-453 (512)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cosme de Ravel

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

Research grade

AvoidCosme de Ravel at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Cosme de Ravel

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Mattia Bellucci 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cosme de Ravel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.