Orleans: Mattia Bellucci vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mattia Bellucci (20%) · Mattia Bellucci at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Mattia Bellucci
5
Mattia Bellucci 20%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$5.04
Research grade
NeutralMattia Bellucci at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Mattia Bellucci. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Mattia Bellucciavg 68¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$16.54 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Mattia Bellucciavg 68¢ | $404.99 | $408.99 | +$4 | 48% 1401-1536 (2937) |
| └ Mattia Bellucci leg | Mattia Bellucciavg 68¢ | $272 | $276 | +$4 | |
| └ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg | Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 31¢ | $132.99 | $132.99 | -$0 | |
MO mouzsynapseCTR | Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32¢ | $342.2 | $331.51 | -$10.69 | — |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 31¢ | $15.5 | $15.5 | +$0 | 50% 112-111 (223) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32¢ | $15.68 | $15.19 | -$0.49 | 49% 678-717 (1395) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 32¢ | $10 | $9.69 | -$0.31 | 50% 49-49 (98) |
Invested
$1,124.68
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$16.54
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$404.99
Value
$408.99
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
1401-1536 (2937)
Both legs:
Invested
$342.2
Value
$331.51
PnL
-$10.69
Record
—
Invested
$15.5
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
112-111 (223)
Invested
$15.68
Value
$15.19
PnL
-$0.49
Record
49%
678-717 (1395)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.69
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
49-49 (98)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.