Sydney: Isaac Becroft vs Shinji Hazawa

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Isaac Becroft (77%) · Isaac Becroft at 88¢ · $925 held · ends Nov 22

Isaac Becroft88¢Shinji Hazawa12¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Isaac Becroft

Consensus Traders

Isaac Becroft 77%

Total Value

$925.43

Combined PnL

-$10.46

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 87.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralIsaac Becroft at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Isaac Becroft

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Isaac Becroft88%

Shinji Hazawa13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Isaac Becroft10 traders

Total Value$846.3

Total Shares975

Combined PnL-$8.76

Shinji Hazawa3 traders

Total Value$79.12

Total Shares658

Combined PnL-$1.7

Isaac Becroft — 77%Shinji Hazawa — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me	Isaac Becroftavg 87.8¢	$413.57	$411.92	-$1.65	48% 326-352 (678)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Isaac Becroftavg 87¢	$134.93	$135.7	+$0.78	49% 573-601 (1174)
BA babybells	Isaac Becroftavg 84¢	$120.64	$111.86	-$8.78	32% 231-493 (724)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Shinji Hazawaavg 11.9¢	$73.47	$73.93	+$0.45	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
VE Venusian<$100	Isaac Becroftavg 88.7¢	$65.85	$64.97	-$0.88	38% 1210-2005 (3215)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Isaac Becroftavg 85.9¢	$48.94	$50.45	+$1.5	31% 266-600 (866)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Isaac Becroftavg 87¢	$26.1	$26.25	+$0.15	34% 228-440 (668)
MA MadridTime<$100	Isaac Becroftavg 88¢	$25.14	$25.28	+$0.14	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Isaac Becroftavg 88¢	$13.59	$13.51	-$0.08	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
PA Pan9X<$100	Isaac Becroftavg 76¢	$5.39	$5.43	+$0.04	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Shinji Hazawaavg 17.9¢	$7.21	$5.05	-$2.16	38% 1202-1984 (3186)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Isaac Becroftavg 76¢	$0.92	$0.92	+$0.01	42% 763-1062 (1825)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Shinji Hazawaavg 11¢	$0.14	$0.15	+$0.01	45% 433-525 (958)

thirdt1me

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$413.57

Value

$411.92

PnL

-$1.65

Record

48%

326-352 (678)

CandleHammerDrums

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$134.93

Value

$135.7

PnL

+$0.78

Record

49%

573-601 (1174)

babybells

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$120.64

Value

$111.86

PnL

-$8.78

Record

32%

231-493 (724)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Shinji Hazawa

Invested

$73.47

Value

$73.93

PnL

+$0.45

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

Venusian<$100

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$65.85

Value

$64.97

PnL

-$0.88

Record

38%

1210-2005 (3215)

BillBenter2026<$100

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$48.94

Value

$50.45

PnL

+$1.5

Record

31%

266-600 (866)

thestingsnake<$100

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$26.1

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

34%

228-440 (668)

MadridTime<$100

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$25.14

Value

$25.28

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

Flaznorp<$100

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$13.59

Value

$13.51

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

Pan9X<$100

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$5.39

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

LimousinCTR<$100

Shinji Hazawa

Invested

$7.21

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$2.16

Record

38%

1202-1984 (3186)

ameisgoat11<$100

Isaac Becroft

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

763-1062 (1825)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Shinji Hazawa

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

433-525 (958)

Research grade

NeutralIsaac Becroft at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Isaac Becroft

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Isaac Becroft wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.