BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Francesco Passaro

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Nikoloz Basilashvili (69%) · Nikoloz Basilashvili at 70¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 14

Nikoloz Basilashvili70¢Francesco Passaro30¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Consensus Traders

Nikoloz Basilashvili 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

-$17.2

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 69.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNikoloz Basilashvili at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikoloz Basilashvili

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nikoloz Basilashvili70%

Francesco Passaro31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikoloz Basilashvili11 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares18,694

Combined PnL-$25.88

Francesco Passaro5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares15,995

Combined PnL+$8.68

Nikoloz Basilashvili — 69%Francesco Passaro — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 67.9¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$30.52	42% 8163-11357 (19520)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Francesco Passaroavg 32.7¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$27.14	46% 454-540 (994)
FL Flaznorp	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 68¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$10.19	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
PR prabam	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 68.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$12.74	69% 35-16 (51)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 68.3¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$18.06	46% 1782-2092 (3874)
RN1ARB<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 33¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$31.86	53% 62287-54524 (116811)
└ Francesco Passaro leg	Francesco Passaroavg 33¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$48.47
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 65¢	$308.53	$325.14	+$16.61
VeryLucky888CTR	Francesco Passaroavg 30.8¢	$1.2K	$601.51	+$36.64	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
38 38791873984189	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 65¢	$605.66	$512.14	+$14.34	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 69.1¢	$217.81	$212.81	-$5.01	52% 14647-13309 (27956)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 67.4¢	$41.34	$29.21	+$0.74	54% 10438-8758 (19196)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 73¢	$36.5	$25.69	-$1.94	60% 4504-3005 (7509)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 33¢	$24.75	$23.62	-$1.12	54% 6321-5389 (11710)
EF efntrick<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 66.5¢	$15.89	$15.95	-$0.24	48% 3686-3931 (7617)
17 0x17be...c52b<$100	Nikoloz Basilashvili	$12.31	$12.31	+$12.31	— 4-0 (4)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 69.1¢	$6.91	$6.85	-$0.06	57% 19422-14372 (33794)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 26¢	$1.32	$1.6	+$0.28	64% 5375-2993 (8368)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Francesco Passaroavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.58	+$0.02	52% 9006-8159 (17165)

ferrariChampions2026

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$4,848.67

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$30.52

Record

42%

8163-11357 (19520)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$4,577.13

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$27.14

Record

46%

454-540 (994)

Flaznorp

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$3,445.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$10.19

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

prabam

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,199.8

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$12.74

Record

69%

35-16 (51)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,184.94

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$18.06

Record

46%

1782-2092 (3874)

RN1ARB<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$1,374.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$31.86

Record

53%

62287-54524 (116811)

Both legs:

Francesco Passaro$1,066.3933¢-$48.47

Nikoloz Basilashvili$308.5365¢+$16.61

VeryLucky888CTR

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$1,236.87

Value

$601.51

PnL

+$36.64

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

38791873984189

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$605.66

Value

$512.14

PnL

+$14.34

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$217.81

Value

$212.81

PnL

-$5.01

Record

52%

14647-13309 (27956)

Pan9X<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$41.34

Value

$29.21

PnL

+$0.74

Record

54%

10438-8758 (19196)

thestingsnake<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$36.5

Value

$25.69

PnL

-$1.94

Record

60%

4504-3005 (7509)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$24.75

Value

$23.62

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

6321-5389 (11710)

efntrick<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$15.89

Value

$15.95

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

3686-3931 (7617)

0x17be...c52b<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$12.31

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$12.31

Record

—

4-0 (4)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

19422-14372 (33794)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.28

Record

64%

5375-2993 (8368)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Francesco Passaro

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

9006-8159 (17165)

Research grade

NeutralNikoloz Basilashvili at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nikoloz Basilashvili

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikoloz Basilashvili wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.