BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Borna Gojo

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Borna Gojo (67%) · Borna Gojo at 61¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 15

Nikoloz Basilashvili40¢Borna Gojo60¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Borna Gojo

Consensus Traders

Borna Gojo 67%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.8K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 60.5¢

+56% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralBorna Gojo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Borna Gojo

12 of 18 top traders (67%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nikoloz Basilashvili40%

Borna Gojo61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Borna Gojo12 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares19,436

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Nikoloz Basilashvili6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,867

Combined PnL-$220.08

Borna Gojo — 67%Nikoloz Basilashvili — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 57.1¢	$10.9K	$9.7K	$-1.2K	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 57.1¢	$6.5K	$7.0K	+$495.86
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 62.1¢	$4.4K	$2.7K	$-1.7K
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 54.7¢	$8.8K	$9.0K	+$193.62	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 54.7¢	$4.9K	$5.4K	+$522.92
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 43.2¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$329.31
VE Venusian	Borna Gojoavg 40.7¢	$4.1K	$6.0K	+$1.9K	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 49.9¢	$6.3K	$6.0K	-$265.29	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 49.9¢	$3.2K	$4.0K	+$758.5
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 58.3¢	$3.0K	$2.0K	$-1.0K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 45.6¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$55.94	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 45.6¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$395.16
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 60.5¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$451.1
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 45.5¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	+$12.95	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 45.5¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$469.39
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 62.5¢	$1.2K	$782.31	-$456.43
K5 k56CTR	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 67.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$82.66	58% 902-666 (1568)
VeryLucky888	Borna Gojoavg 34.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$44.52	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 60.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$83.48	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 46.9¢	$832.63	$1.1K	+$241.06
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 60.7¢	$929.72	$605.18	-$324.54
TH thestingsnake	Borna Gojoavg 41.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$222.9	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
HI hi774c	Borna Gojoavg 34¢	$510.34	$833.05	+$322.71	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
12xmrboltCTR	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 49.2¢	$513	$494.79	-$18.21	44% 264-342 (606)
RN1CTR	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 44.2¢	$530.5	$461.83	-$68.67	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
MA MadridTime	Borna Gojoavg 54.1¢	$321.54	$347.51	+$25.97	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 47.2¢	$341.98	$314.62	-$27.36	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 47.2¢	$266.63	$234.48	-$32.15
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 55¢	$75.35	$80.15	+$4.8
LI LightParadox	Borna Gojoavg 39.2¢	$192.95	$285.82	+$92.87	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Borna Gojoavg 33¢	$196.06	$210.91	+$14.85	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
PT PT-S7CTR	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 55.3¢	$212.88	$163.54	-$49.34	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 65.1¢	$120.99	$119.86	-$1.13	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 51.9¢	$109.22	$113.66	+$4.44	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 51.9¢	$63.42	$75.16	+$11.74
└ Nikoloz Basilashvili leg	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 45.8¢	$45.8	$38.5	-$7.3
tradecraft<$100	Borna Gojoavg 52¢	$80.08	$94.71	+$14.63	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
PA Pan9X<$100	Borna Gojoavg 34.4¢	$68.15	$79.95	+$14.07	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
EF efntrick<$100	Borna Gojoavg 35¢	$42	$45	+$3	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Borna Gojoavg 34¢	$25.5	$42.37	+$16.87	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Nikoloz Basilashviliavg 44¢	$21	$20.93	-$0.07	64% 5377-2997 (8374)

LimousinARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$10,887.65

Value

$9.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$6,511.6657.1¢+$495.86

Nikoloz Basilashvili$4,375.9962.1¢$-1.7K

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$8,794.49

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$193.62

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$4,913.3954.7¢+$522.92

Nikoloz Basilashvili$3,881.143.2¢-$329.31

Venusian

Borna Gojo

Invested

$4,085.05

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$6,261.46

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$265.29

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$3,248.7649.9¢+$758.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili$3,012.7158.3¢$-1.0K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$3,266.44

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$55.94

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$1,658.2545.6¢+$395.16

Nikoloz Basilashvili$1,608.1960.5¢-$451.1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$2,966.13

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$12.95

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$1,543.0445.5¢+$469.39

Nikoloz Basilashvili$1,238.7562.5¢-$456.43

k56CTR

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$2,033.89

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$82.66

Record

58%

902-666 (1568)

VeryLucky888

Borna Gojo

Invested

$1,847.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$44.52

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$1,762.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$83.48

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$832.6346.9¢+$241.06

Nikoloz Basilashvili$929.7260.7¢-$324.54

thestingsnake

Borna Gojo

Invested

$1,116.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$222.9

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

hi774c

Borna Gojo

Invested

$510.34

Value

$833.05

PnL

+$322.71

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

12xmrboltCTR

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$513

Value

$494.79

PnL

-$18.21

Record

44%

264-342 (606)

RN1CTR

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$530.5

Value

$461.83

PnL

-$68.67

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

MadridTime

Borna Gojo

Invested

$321.54

Value

$347.51

PnL

+$25.97

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

EulhunterARB<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$341.98

Value

$314.62

PnL

-$27.36

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Both legs:

Nikoloz Basilashvili$266.6347.2¢-$32.15

Borna Gojo$75.3555¢+$4.8

LightParadox

Borna Gojo

Invested

$192.95

Value

$285.82

PnL

+$92.87

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Borna Gojo

Invested

$196.06

Value

$210.91

PnL

+$14.85

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

PT-S7CTR

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$212.88

Value

$163.54

PnL

-$49.34

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

darkumbreon88CTR

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$120.99

Value

$119.86

PnL

-$1.13

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$109.22

Value

$113.66

PnL

+$4.44

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$63.4251.9¢+$11.74

Nikoloz Basilashvili$45.845.8¢-$7.3

tradecraft<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$80.08

Value

$94.71

PnL

+$14.63

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

Pan9X<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$68.15

Value

$79.95

PnL

+$14.07

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

efntrick<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$42

Value

$45

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$25.5

Value

$42.37

PnL

+$16.87

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Invested

$21

Value

$20.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

Research grade

NeutralBorna Gojo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Borna Gojo

12 of 18 top traders (67%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Borna Gojo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.