Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pierre-Hugues Herbert, while the market favors Nishesh Basavareddy (67%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Orleans: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pierre-Hugues Herbert (89%) · Pierre-Hugues Herbert at 34¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
9
Pierre-Hugues Herbert 89%
$2.1K
$24
33.1¢ → 33.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralPierre-Hugues Herbert at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Nishesh Basavareddy 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 33¢ | $685.33 | $695.72 | +$10.38 | 58% 3746-2703 (6449) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 33¢ | $577.5 | $586.25 | +$8.75 | 48% 215-230 (445) |
K5 k56 | Nishesh Basavareddyavg 66¢ | $451.42 | $454.84 | +$3.42 | 0% 0-204 (204) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 33¢ | $220.11 | $223.45 | +$3.34 | 56% 100-79 (179) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 34¢ | $138.65 | $136.61 | -$2.04 | 34% 164-316 (480) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 33¢ | $10.56 | $10.72 | +$0.16 | 48% 407-443 (850) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 34¢ | $4.76 | $4.69 | -$0.07 | 52% 122-112 (234) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 33¢ | $2.46 | $2.5 | +$0.04 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Pierre-Hugues Herbertavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.68 | +$0.03 | 23% 142-486 (628) |
RN1CTRInvested
$685.33
Value
$695.72
PnL
+$10.38
Record
58%
3746-2703 (6449)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$577.5
Value
$586.25
PnL
+$8.75
Record
48%
215-230 (445)
Invested
$451.42
Value
$454.84
PnL
+$3.42
Record
0%
0-204 (204)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$220.11
Value
$223.45
PnL
+$3.34
Record
56%
100-79 (179)
Invested
$138.65
Value
$136.61
PnL
-$2.04
Record
34%
164-316 (480)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$10.72
PnL
+$0.16
Record
48%
407-443 (850)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
122-112 (234)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.68
PnL
+$0.03
Record
23%
142-486 (628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $695.72
VeryLucky888
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $586.25
k56
Nishesh Basavareddy — $454.84
0xheavy888
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $223.45
omnibus-076daa
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $136.61
Pan9X
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $10.72
nigiri99
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $4.69
Flaznorp
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $2.5
ameisgoat11
CTRPierre-Hugues Herbert — $1.68