Orleans: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Daniel Altmaier

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Nishesh Basavareddy (55%) · Nishesh Basavareddy at 65¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 21

Nishesh Basavareddy65¢Daniel Altmaier35¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nishesh Basavareddy

Consensus Traders

Nishesh Basavareddy 55%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 64.5¢

+13% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNishesh Basavareddy at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nishesh Basavareddy

12 of 22 top traders (55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nishesh Basavareddy65%

Daniel Altmaier36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nishesh Basavareddy12 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares26,180

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Daniel Altmaier10 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares28,005

Combined PnL+$140.33

Nishesh Basavareddy — 55%Daniel Altmaier — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 65.3¢	$11.8K	$11.2K	-$636.63	50% 3804-3774 (7578)
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 65.3¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$108.53
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 43.9¢	$2.8K	$2.2K	-$528.1
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 56¢	$6.2K	$6.8K	+$515.56	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
EZ EzmoneyfornowCTR	Daniel Altmaieravg 42¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$350	49% 19-20 (39)
LI LimousinCTR	Daniel Altmaieravg 30.6¢	$3.1K	$3.6K	+$490.9	36% 928-1642 (2570)
RN1ARB<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 53.7¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$189.11	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 53.7¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$28.12
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$160.98
tradecraft	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$530.18	30% 334-774 (1108)
VE Venusian	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 56¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$256.42	36% 945-1666 (2611)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Daniel Altmaieravg 31.2¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	+$405	37% 966-1631 (2597)
VeryLucky888	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 61¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	+$21	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 58.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$4.77	56% 4057-3168 (7225)
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 58.4¢	$728.88	$767.2	+$38.33
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 41.6¢	$455.42	$421.87	-$33.55
FL Flaznorp	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 56.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$8.98	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 58¢	$993.96	$990.99	-$2.97	48% 513-548 (1061)
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 58¢	$721.02	$714.81	-$6.22
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 42¢	$272.93	$276.18	+$3.25
MO mouzsynapse	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 58¢	$852.17	$830.26	-$21.91	40% 117-175 (292)
NO NotJump	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 50¢	$2.1K	$795.01	-$119.05	52% 815-747 (1562)
SU suntoriCTR	Daniel Altmaieravg 44.9¢	$779.03	$537.46	-$241.57	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
0xheavy888	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 61¢	$406.86	$410.19	+$3.33	54% 493-416 (909)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Daniel Altmaieravg 39.6¢	$516.48	$322.32	+$51.42	39% 124-194 (318)
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 52.8¢	$148.17	$195.08	+$89.25
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 39.6¢	$165.08	$127.25	-$37.83
BA babybellsARB<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 60.6¢	$345.53	$291.12	+$3.72	30% 205-475 (680)
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 60.6¢	$181.82	$193.5	+$12
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 37.1¢	$102.05	$97.63	-$8.28
VI vibing123	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 55¢	$310.75	$290.98	-$19.77	62% 1134-696 (1830)
EU Eulhunter	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 53.2¢	$257.86	$269	+$11.14	51% 189-178 (367)
GA GaditimaCTR	Daniel Altmaieravg 39¢	$195	$192.5	-$2.5	49% 273-288 (561)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Daniel Altmaieravg 44.1¢	$535.05	$155.71	-$109.66	49% 278-294 (572)
38 38791873984189CTR	Daniel Altmaieravg 43.1¢	$771.73	$127.36	-$148.81	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 64.7¢	$246.64	$101.04	-$0.13	44% 365-466 (831)
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 64.7¢	$76.48	$76.19	-$3.98
└ Daniel Altmaier leg	Daniel Altmaieravg 43¢	$30.1	$24.85	+$3.85
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Daniel Altmaieravg 38¢	$46.57	$47.99	+$1.43	37% 353-603 (956)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$11,806.85

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$636.63

Record

50%

3804-3774 (7578)

Both legs:

Nishesh Basavareddy$9,034.365.3¢-$108.53

Daniel Altmaier$2,772.5543.9¢-$528.1

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$6,242.81

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$515.56

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

EzmoneyfornowCTR

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$4,200

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$350

Record

49%

19-20 (39)

LimousinCTR

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$3,093.3

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$490.9

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

RN1ARB<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$3,100.07

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$189.11

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

Both legs:

Nishesh Basavareddy$1,929.2953.7¢+$28.12

Daniel Altmaier$1,170.7940¢+$160.98

tradecraft

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$2,370.47

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$530.18

Record

30%

334-774 (1108)

Venusian

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$2,610.78

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$256.42

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

MadridTimeCTR

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$3,200.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$405

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

VeryLucky888

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$2,003.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$21

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$1,184.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$4.77

Record

56%

4057-3168 (7225)

Both legs:

Nishesh Basavareddy$728.8858.4¢+$38.33

Daniel Altmaier$455.4241.6¢-$33.55

Flaznorp

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$1,181.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$8.98

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$993.96

Value

$990.99

PnL

-$2.97

Record

48%

513-548 (1061)

Both legs:

Nishesh Basavareddy$721.0258¢-$6.22

Daniel Altmaier$272.9342¢+$3.25

mouzsynapse

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$852.17

Value

$830.26

PnL

-$21.91

Record

40%

117-175 (292)

NotJump

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$2,125.65

Value

$795.01

PnL

-$119.05

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

suntoriCTR

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$779.03

Value

$537.46

PnL

-$241.57

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

0xheavy888

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$406.86

Value

$410.19

PnL

+$3.33

Record

54%

493-416 (909)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$516.48

Value

$322.32

PnL

+$51.42

Record

39%

124-194 (318)

Both legs:

Nishesh Basavareddy$148.1752.8¢+$89.25

Daniel Altmaier$165.0839.6¢-$37.83

babybellsARB<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$345.53

Value

$291.12

PnL

+$3.72

Record

30%

205-475 (680)

Both legs:

Nishesh Basavareddy$181.8260.6¢+$12

Daniel Altmaier$102.0537.1¢-$8.28

vibing123

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$310.75

Value

$290.98

PnL

-$19.77

Record

62%

1134-696 (1830)

Eulhunter

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$257.86

Value

$269

PnL

+$11.14

Record

51%

189-178 (367)

GaditimaCTR

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$195

Value

$192.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

49%

273-288 (561)

thirdt1meCTR

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$535.05

Value

$155.71

PnL

-$109.66

Record

49%

278-294 (572)

38791873984189CTR

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$771.73

Value

$127.36

PnL

-$148.81

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$246.64

Value

$101.04

PnL

-$0.13

Record

44%

365-466 (831)

Both legs:

Nishesh Basavareddy$76.4864.7¢-$3.98

Daniel Altmaier$30.143¢+$3.85

GC-PCTR<$100

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$46.57

Value

$47.99

PnL

+$1.43

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Research grade

NeutralNishesh Basavareddy at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nishesh Basavareddy

12 of 22 top traders (55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nishesh Basavareddy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.