Knoxville: Ozan Baris vs Michael Zheng

16 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Zheng (67%) · Michael Zheng at 90¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 19

Ozan Baris11¢Michael Zheng89¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michael Zheng

Consensus Traders

Michael Zheng 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.9K

Combined PnL

-$369.78

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 89.5¢

+6% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichael Zheng at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Zheng

16 of 24 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ozan Baris11%

Michael Zheng90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Zheng16 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares32,009

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Ozan Baris8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares25,456

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Michael Zheng — 67%Ozan Baris — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE redvinny	Michael Zhengavg 93¢	$13.4K	$12.9K	-$505.5	19% 30-132 (162)
RN1	Michael Zhengavg 68.5¢	$7.2K	$9.2K	+$2.0K	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
65 6512395314597884	Michael Zhengavg 91¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$68.13	50% 3540-3500 (7040)
VE Venusian	Michael Zhengavg 88¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$25.74	32% 538-1125 (1663)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Ozan Barisavg 31.3¢	$3.7K	$1.2K	$-2.5K	37% 17-29 (46)
NO NotJumpCTR	Ozan Barisavg 44.2¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$19.87	54% 439-373 (812)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Michael Zhengavg 91¢	$900.9	$905.85	+$4.95	48% 335-369 (704)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ozan Barisavg 7.1¢	$727.94	$877.34	+$149.4	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
38 38791873984189	Michael Zhengavg 90.9¢	$1.9K	$787.36	+$232.7	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
MA MadridTime	Michael Zhengavg 78.3¢	$646.79	$747.52	+$100.73	33% 558-1109 (1667)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Michael Zhengavg 87.4¢	$752.15	$695.33	-$56.82	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 87.4¢	$508.91	$527.13	+$18.22
└ Ozan Baris leg	Ozan Barisavg 13.7¢	$243.24	$168.2	-$75.04
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Michael Zhengavg 91.3¢	$649.39	$614.46	-$34.93	56% 3900-3066 (6966)
LI Limousin	Michael Zhengavg 92¢	$579.95	$564.19	-$15.76	33% 534-1108 (1642)
1L 1lovejump	Michael Zhengavg 76.5¢	$236.65	$275.42	+$38.77	36% 94-169 (263)
TH thestingsnake	Michael Zhengavg 87¢	$288.45	$271.98	+$19.53	30% 171-397 (568)
BA babybells	Michael Zhengavg 80.4¢	$118	$135	+$17	27% 157-430 (587)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Michael Zhengavg 69¢	$92.91	$111.04	+$27.93	41% 251-365 (616)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Ozan Barisavg 11.6¢	$144.69	$107.76	-$17.41	45% 157-194 (351)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 27¢	$50.76	$55.46	+$4.7	39% 103-159 (262)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Michael Zhengavg 90¢	$41.82	$31.99	+$0.07	51% 139-136 (275)
SE sentrio<$100	Michael Zhengavg 91¢	$27.7	$27.85	+$0.15	41% 544-784 (1328)
LR lryyy<$100	Michael Zhengavg 68¢	$14.96	$15.51	+$0.55	44% 384-486 (870)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 26.2¢	$2.09	$2.36	+$0.27	52% 352-328 (680)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 27¢	$1.98	$2.16	+$0.18	49% 1072-1133 (2205)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ozan Barisavg 11¢	$1.83	$1.75	-$0.08	33% 553-1132 (1685)

redvinny

Michael Zheng

Invested

$13,431.99

Value

$12.9K

PnL

-$505.5

Record

19%

30-132 (162)

RN1

Michael Zheng

Invested

$7,163.72

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

6512395314597884

Michael Zheng

Invested

$1,760.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$68.13

Record

50%

3540-3500 (7040)

Venusian

Michael Zheng

Invested

$1,409.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$25.74

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Ozan Baris

Invested

$3,714.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

37%

17-29 (46)

NotJumpCTR

Ozan Baris

Invested

$1,767.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$19.87

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

CandleHammerDrums

Michael Zheng

Invested

$900.9

Value

$905.85

PnL

+$4.95

Record

48%

335-369 (704)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ozan Baris

Invested

$727.94

Value

$877.34

PnL

+$149.4

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

38791873984189

Michael Zheng

Invested

$1,859.89

Value

$787.36

PnL

+$232.7

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

MadridTime

Michael Zheng

Invested

$646.79

Value

$747.52

PnL

+$100.73

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Michael Zheng

Invested

$752.15

Value

$695.33

PnL

-$56.82

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$508.9187.4¢+$18.22

Ozan Baris$243.2413.7¢-$75.04

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Michael Zheng

Invested

$649.39

Value

$614.46

PnL

-$34.93

Record

56%

3900-3066 (6966)

Limousin

Michael Zheng

Invested

$579.95

Value

$564.19

PnL

-$15.76

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

1lovejump

Michael Zheng

Invested

$236.65

Value

$275.42

PnL

+$38.77

Record

36%

94-169 (263)

thestingsnake

Michael Zheng

Invested

$288.45

Value

$271.98

PnL

+$19.53

Record

30%

171-397 (568)

babybells

Michael Zheng

Invested

$118

Value

$135

PnL

+$17

Record

27%

157-430 (587)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Michael Zheng

Invested

$92.91

Value

$111.04

PnL

+$27.93

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

thirdt1meCTR

Ozan Baris

Invested

$144.69

Value

$107.76

PnL

-$17.41

Record

45%

157-194 (351)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$50.76

Value

$55.46

PnL

+$4.7

Record

39%

103-159 (262)

Eulhunter<$100

Michael Zheng

Invested

$41.82

Value

$31.99

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

139-136 (275)

sentrio<$100

Michael Zheng

Invested

$27.7

Value

$27.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

lryyy<$100

Michael Zheng

Invested

$14.96

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$0.55

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

352-328 (680)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$1.83

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.08

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

Research grade

NeutralMichael Zheng at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Zheng

16 of 24 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Zheng wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.