Knoxville: Ozan Baris vs Oliver Tarvet
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Oliver Tarvet (75%) · Oliver Tarvet at 83¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Oliver Tarvet
4
Oliver Tarvet 75%
$1.1K
$9.65
83¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOliver Tarvet at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢ | $706.33 | $710.58 | +$4.25 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Ozan Barisavg 17¢ | $171.42 | $176.46 | +$5.04 | 1% 2-197 (199) |
SE sentrio | Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢ | $165.15 | $165.15 | +$0 | 29% 155-375 (530) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Oliver Tarvetavg 83¢ | $58.05 | $58.4 | +$0.35 | 48% 406-439 (845) |
Invested
$706.33
Value
$710.58
PnL
+$4.25
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
Invested
$171.42
Value
$176.46
PnL
+$5.04
Record
1%
2-197 (199)
Invested
$165.15
Value
$165.15
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
155-375 (530)
Invested
$58.05
Value
$58.4
PnL
+$0.35
Record
48%
406-439 (845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.