Champaign: David Bakonyi vs Axel Nefve

5 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Axel Nefve (29%) · Axel Nefve at 96¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 22

David Bakonyi5¢Axel Nefve95¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Axel Nefve

Consensus Traders

Axel Nefve 29%

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$173.21

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 95.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAxel Nefve at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Axel Nefve

5 of 17 top traders (29%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

David Bakonyi5%

Axel Nefve96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Axel Nefve5 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares16,026

Combined PnL+$38.24

David Bakonyi12 traders

Total Value$806.15

Total Shares14,726

Combined PnL+$134.97

Axel Nefve — 29%David Bakonyi — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Axel Nefve. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDavid Bakonyi 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedDavid Bakonyi 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000David Bakonyi 75% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Axel Nefveavg 96¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$0	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI LightParadox	Axel Nefveavg 94.9¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$38.43	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
NO NotJump	Axel Nefveavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$0	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	David Bakonyiavg 4.5¢	$605.3	$741.41	+$136.11	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
BA babybells	Axel Nefveavg 96¢	$197.72	$197.28	-$0.43	35% 282-533 (815)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 4¢	$30.97	$40.64	+$9.67	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 6.3¢	$16.39	$10.36	-$6.02	47% 383-426 (809)
RN1CTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 4.1¢	$5.88	$5.79	-$0.09	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
VeryLucky888<$100	Axel Nefveavg 87.7¢	$13.15	$4.09	+$0.24	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 7¢	$5.6	$3.6	-$2	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 4¢	$2.12	$2.12	+$0	53% 231-201 (432)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 7¢	$1.05	$0.6	-$0.45	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 7¢	$0.97	$0.56	-$0.42	48% 651-710 (1361)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 12¢	$1.2	$0.4	-$0.8	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 12¢	$0.8	$0.27	-$0.53	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 13¢	$0.65	$0.2	-$0.45	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	David Bakonyiavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.2	-$0.05	46% 499-597 (1096)

MadridTime

Axel Nefve

Invested

$7,534

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

LightParadox

Axel Nefve

Invested

$6,594.72

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$38.43

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

NotJump

Axel Nefve

Invested

$1,053.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

David Bakonyi

Invested

$605.3

Value

$741.41

PnL

+$136.11

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

babybells

Axel Nefve

Invested

$197.72

Value

$197.28

PnL

-$0.43

Record

35%

282-533 (815)

38791873984189CTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$30.97

Value

$40.64

PnL

+$9.67

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$16.39

Value

$10.36

PnL

-$6.02

Record

47%

383-426 (809)

RN1CTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.79

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

VeryLucky888<$100

Axel Nefve

Invested

$13.15

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$5.6

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

EulhunterCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

231-201 (432)

VenusianCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.42

Record

48%

651-710 (1361)

LimousinCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.53

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

sentrioCTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.45

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

David Bakonyi

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

Research grade

NeutralAxel Nefve at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Axel Nefve

5 of 17 top traders (29%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Axel Nefve. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDavid Bakonyi 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedDavid Bakonyi 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000David Bakonyi 75% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Axel Nefve wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.