Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sebastian Baez, while the market favors Calvin Hemery (54%). 9 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Orleans: Sebastian Baez vs Calvin Hemery

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Baez (50%) · Sebastian Baez at 47¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 19

Sebastian Baez47¢Calvin Hemery53¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Baez

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Baez 50%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 46.5¢

-33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Baez at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Baez

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Calvin Hemery 54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Baez47%

Calvin Hemery54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Calvin Hemery9 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,061

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Sebastian Baez9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,540

Combined PnL+$75.65

Calvin Hemery — 50%Sebastian Baez — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 77.1¢	$10.1K	$7.2K	$-2.9K	33% 558-1111 (1669)
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 77.1¢	$8.7K	$5.3K	$-3.5K
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 37.2¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$600.75
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 56¢	$3.6K	$5.5K	+$1.8K	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 19¢	$1.4K	$3.2K	+$1.8K
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 56¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$20
LI LightParadox	Calvin Hemeryavg 29.5¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$816.59	33% 553-1135 (1688)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 33¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$327.83	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 33¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$379.39
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 58.1¢	$964.63	$913.08	-$51.56
65 6512395314597884CTR	Sebastian Baezavg 70.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$36.46	50% 3542-3501 (7043)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	+$78.89	54% 455-382 (837)
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 50¢	$757.69	$704.65	+$55.89
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 40.7¢	$472.34	$620.24	+$23
VE VenusianARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 36¢	$933.39	$1.1K	+$143.32	32% 538-1128 (1666)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 36¢	$561.93	$834.87	+$272.94
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 71.4¢	$371.46	$241.84	-$129.62
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 67¢	$888.63	$628.14	+$139.5	48% 342-378 (720)
TRCM	Calvin Hemeryavg 49¢	$544.01	$593.97	+$49.96	13% 63-439 (502)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 67¢	$1.3K	$587.26	-$237.07	30% 173-399 (572)
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 67¢	$592.04	$410.6	-$251.12
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 47.2¢	$156	$176.66	+$14.06
38 38791873984189	Calvin Hemeryavg 25.2¢	$294	$452.82	+$174.75	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 65.1¢	$440.4	$448.04	+$7.65	56% 3902-3070 (6972)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 36.2¢	$185.43	$238.44	+$53.01
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 65.1¢	$254.96	$209.6	-$45.36
TH thirdt1meCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 68¢	$762.12	$348.81	-$78.24	45% 158-195 (353)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 63.7¢	$346.71	$289.24	-$50.42	36% 95-169 (264)
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 63.7¢	$301.86	$220.23	-$82.39
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 28.7¢	$37.05	$69.02	+$31.96
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918	Calvin Hemeryavg 42¢	$209.44	$266.79	+$57.35	46% 21-25 (46)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 70.3¢	$242.1	$205.13	-$19.08	41% 257-370 (627)
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 70.3¢	$150.03	$126.01	-$27.06
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 39.2¢	$75.65	$79.13	+$7.98
BA babybellsCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 70.1¢	$230.36	$182.02	+$17.78	27% 159-430 (589)
SU suitcase6628	Calvin Hemeryavg 46¢	$138	$160.5	+$22.5	63% 366-217 (583)
LI Limousin	Calvin Hemeryavg 52.9¢	$136.73	$138.26	+$1.53	32% 534-1112 (1646)
RN1<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 43¢	$59.08	$59.76	+$0.69	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 47.4¢	$59.38	$57.24	-$2.14	43% 706-932 (1638)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 47.4¢	$33.83	$33.17	-$0.66
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 56.8¢	$25.55	$24.08	-$1.47
poshposh<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 20¢	$60	$55.5	-$4.5	47% 532-590 (1122)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 73.9¢	$36.57	$29.26	-$0.41	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 34¢	$27.65	$28.06	+$0.41	50% 141-139 (280)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 49.8¢	$29.9	$27.9	-$2	45% 166-202 (368)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$10,094.28

Value

$7.2K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

Both legs:

Sebastian Baez$8,722.8777.1¢$-3.5K

Calvin Hemery$1,371.4137.2¢+$600.75

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$3,641.02

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$1,401.0219¢+$1.8K

Sebastian Baez$2,24056¢+$20

LightParadox

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,558.92

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$816.59

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$2,004.01

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$327.83

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$1,039.3833¢+$379.39

Sebastian Baez$964.6358.1¢-$51.56

6512395314597884CTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$1,934.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$36.46

Record

50%

3542-3501 (7043)

NotJumpARB<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$1,807.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$78.89

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Both legs:

Sebastian Baez$757.6950¢+$55.89

Calvin Hemery$472.3440.7¢+$23

VenusianARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$933.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$143.32

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$561.9336¢+$272.94

Sebastian Baez$371.4671.4¢-$129.62

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$888.63

Value

$628.14

PnL

+$139.5

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

TRCM

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$544.01

Value

$593.97

PnL

+$49.96

Record

13%

63-439 (502)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$1,253.25

Value

$587.26

PnL

-$237.07

Record

30%

173-399 (572)

Both legs:

Sebastian Baez$592.0467¢-$251.12

Calvin Hemery$15647.2¢+$14.06

38791873984189

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$294

Value

$452.82

PnL

+$174.75

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$440.4

Value

$448.04

PnL

+$7.65

Record

56%

3902-3070 (6972)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$185.4336.2¢+$53.01

Sebastian Baez$254.9665.1¢-$45.36

thirdt1meCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$762.12

Value

$348.81

PnL

-$78.24

Record

45%

158-195 (353)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$346.71

Value

$289.24

PnL

-$50.42

Record

36%

95-169 (264)

Both legs:

Sebastian Baez$301.8663.7¢-$82.39

Calvin Hemery$37.0528.7¢+$31.96

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$209.44

Value

$266.79

PnL

+$57.35

Record

46%

21-25 (46)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$242.1

Value

$205.13

PnL

-$19.08

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

Both legs:

Sebastian Baez$150.0370.3¢-$27.06

Calvin Hemery$75.6539.2¢+$7.98

babybellsCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$230.36

Value

$182.02

PnL

+$17.78

Record

27%

159-430 (589)

suitcase6628

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$138

Value

$160.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

63%

366-217 (583)

Limousin

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$136.73

Value

$138.26

PnL

+$1.53

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

RN1<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$59.08

Value

$59.76

PnL

+$0.69

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$59.38

Value

$57.24

PnL

-$2.14

Record

43%

706-932 (1638)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$33.8347.4¢-$0.66

Sebastian Baez$25.5556.8¢-$1.47

poshposh<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$60

Value

$55.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$36.57

Value

$29.26

PnL

-$0.41

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

Eulhunter<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$27.65

Value

$28.06

PnL

+$0.41

Record

50%

141-139 (280)

ojgCTR<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$29.9

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$2

Record

45%

166-202 (368)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Baez at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Baez

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Calvin Hemery 54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Baez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.