Orleans: Sebastian Baez vs Daniil Glinka

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Baez (86%) · Sebastian Baez at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Sebastian Baez51¢Daniil Glinka49¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Baez

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Baez 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$51.54

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Baez at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Baez

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Baez51%

Daniil Glinka50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Baez6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,861

Combined PnL+$49.77

Daniil Glinka1 trader

Total Value$28.3

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$1.77

Sebastian Baez — 86%Daniil Glinka — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Baez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSebastian Baez 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSebastian Baez 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Baez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Baez 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Sebastian Baezavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$52.5	1% 2-197 (199)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.8¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$44.64	48% 214-230 (444)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.8¢	$877.41	$889.92	+$9.45
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 52¢	$332.8	$310.4	-$54.1
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.8¢	$721.72	$702.06	-$19.66	56% 99-79 (178)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.8¢	$374.88	$365.23	-$9.65
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 52¢	$346.84	$336.84	-$10
DA darkumbreon88	Sebastian Baezavg 53¢	$132.36	$129.86	-$2.5	61% 891-567 (1458)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 52¢	$29.79	$29.79	-$0	50% 1383-1403 (2786)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 45¢	$26.53	$28.3	+$1.77	24% 202-632 (834)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 53¢	$19.33	$19.12	-$0.21	48% 407-442 (849)
SE sentrio<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 52¢	$8.4	$8.4	+$0	29% 157-376 (533)
MA MadridTime<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.03	25% 203-620 (823)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$1,715

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

2-197 (199)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$1,828.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$44.64

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$877.4150.8¢+$9.45

Sebastian Baez$332.852¢-$54.1

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$721.72

Value

$702.06

PnL

-$19.66

Record

56%

99-79 (178)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$374.8850.8¢-$9.65

Sebastian Baez$346.8452¢-$10

darkumbreon88

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$132.36

Value

$129.86

PnL

-$2.5

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

Flaznorp<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$29.79

Value

$29.79

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1383-1403 (2786)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$26.53

Value

$28.3

PnL

+$1.77

Record

24%

202-632 (834)

Pan9X<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$19.33

Value

$19.12

PnL

-$0.21

Record

48%

407-442 (849)

sentrio<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

157-376 (533)

MadridTime<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

25%

203-620 (823)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Baez at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Baez

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Baez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSebastian Baez 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSebastian Baez 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Baez 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Baez 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Baez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.