Brisbane 3: Alafia Ayeni vs Alex Bolt

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Bolt (45%) · Alex Bolt at 80¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18

Alafia Ayeni21¢Alex Bolt79¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Bolt

Consensus Traders

Alex Bolt 45%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$8.47

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 79.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Bolt at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Bolt

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alafia Ayeni21%

Alex Bolt80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Bolt5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,039

Combined PnL+$35.92

Alafia Ayeni6 traders

Total Value$947.12

Total Shares4,305

Combined PnL-$27.45

Alex Bolt — 45%Alafia Ayeni — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Alex Bolt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alafia Ayeni) and the top 1000 (10 on Alex Bolt) disagree here.

ctrAlafia Ayeni 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlafia Ayeni 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alex Bolt 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Alex Boltavg 77¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$24.07	61% 918-586 (1504)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 23¢	$672.09	$642.91	-$29.17	30% 350-836 (1186)
38 38791873984189	Alex Boltavg 77.3¢	$216.44	$218.44	+$2	48% 1171-1252 (2423)
0xheavy888	Alex Boltavg 74.6¢	$203.16	$212.51	+$9.35	56% 179-138 (317)
VE VenusianCTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 23¢	$220.38	$210.8	-$9.58	29% 349-838 (1187)
VeryLucky888CTR	Alafia Ayeniavg 20¢	$335.22	$47.86	+$11.31	52% 410-384 (794)
PA Pan9X<$100	Alex Boltavg 77¢	$38.5	$39	+$0.5	49% 612-639 (1251)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 22¢	$25.95	$25.95	+$0	51% 1751-1707 (3458)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Alex Boltavg 78¢	$22.97	$22.97	-$0	50% 3255-3204 (6459)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 22¢	$17.73	$17.73	-$0	29% 351-840 (1191)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Alafia Ayeniavg 22¢	$1.87	$1.87	+$0	30% 354-813 (1167)

darkumbreon88

Alex Bolt

Invested

$1,853.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$24.07

Record

61%

918-586 (1504)

LightParadoxCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$672.09

Value

$642.91

PnL

-$29.17

Record

30%

350-836 (1186)

38791873984189

Alex Bolt

Invested

$216.44

Value

$218.44

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

1171-1252 (2423)

0xheavy888

Alex Bolt

Invested

$203.16

Value

$212.51

PnL

+$9.35

Record

56%

179-138 (317)

VenusianCTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$220.38

Value

$210.8

PnL

-$9.58

Record

29%

349-838 (1187)

VeryLucky888CTR

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$335.22

Value

$47.86

PnL

+$11.31

Record

52%

410-384 (794)

Pan9X<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$38.5

Value

$39

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

612-639 (1251)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$25.95

Value

$25.95

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1751-1707 (3458)

6512395314597884<$100

Alex Bolt

Invested

$22.97

Value

$22.97

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3255-3204 (6459)

LimousinCTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$17.73

Value

$17.73

PnL

-$0

Record

29%

351-840 (1191)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Alafia Ayeni

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

354-813 (1167)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Bolt at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Bolt

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Alex Bolt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alafia Ayeni) and the top 1000 (10 on Alex Bolt) disagree here.

ctrAlafia Ayeni 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlafia Ayeni 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alex Bolt 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Bolt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.