Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Ben Shelton

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ben Shelton (17%) · Ben Shelton at 76¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 14

Luca Van Assche25¢Ben Shelton75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ben Shelton

Consensus Traders

Ben Shelton 17%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

-$132.82

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 75.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBen Shelton at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

2 of 12 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Luca Van Assche25%

Ben Shelton76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ben Shelton2 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares16,430

Combined PnL-$219.24

Luca Van Assche10 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares24,710

Combined PnL+$86.42

Ben Shelton — 17%Luca Van Assche — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QI qiu3	Ben Sheltonavg 76.9¢	$12.1K	$11.9K	-$222.58	60% 51-34 (85)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 75¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$78.74	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 75¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$12.13
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 23.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$66.61
HI hi774cCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 23.4¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$83.99	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
FY fydiCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$30	50% 342-340 (682)
K5 k56CTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 25.9¢	$1.0K	$980	-$57.5	57% 900-666 (1566)
NM NM-PCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$512.12	$522.34	+$10.21	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
0xheavy888	Ben Sheltonavg 75¢	$500.25	$503.59	+$3.34	56% 8222-6527 (14749)
GC GC-PCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$479.99	$489.99	+$10	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$471.12	$480.94	+$9.81	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$278.61	$282.33	+$4.72	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$202.61	$206.83	+$4.22
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 76¢	$76	$75.5	+$0.5
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 23¢	$138	$138	+$0	51% 2057-1996 (4053)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$78.48	$45.77	+$0.73	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 25.1¢	$46.71	$45.68	-$1.03	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$9.6	$9.8	+$0.2	48% 3686-3932 (7618)

qiu3

Ben Shelton

Invested

$12,123.73

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$222.58

Record

60%

51-34 (85)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$3,614.71

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$78.74

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

Both legs:

Ben Shelton$1,818.8375¢+$12.13

Luca Van Assche$1,694.3623.6¢+$66.61

hi774cCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$1,818.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$83.99

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

fydiCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

50%

342-340 (682)

k56CTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$1,037.5

Value

$980

PnL

-$57.5

Record

57%

900-666 (1566)

NM-PCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$512.12

Value

$522.34

PnL

+$10.21

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

0xheavy888

Ben Shelton

Invested

$500.25

Value

$503.59

PnL

+$3.34

Record

56%

8222-6527 (14749)

GC-PCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$479.99

Value

$489.99

PnL

+$10

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

FlaznorpCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$471.12

Value

$480.94

PnL

+$9.81

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

EulhunterARB<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$278.61

Value

$282.33

PnL

+$4.72

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

Both legs:

Luca Van Assche$202.6124¢+$4.22

Ben Shelton$7676¢+$0.5

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$138

Value

$138

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2057-1996 (4053)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$78.48

Value

$45.77

PnL

+$0.73

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

LimousinCTR<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$46.71

Value

$45.68

PnL

-$1.03

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

efntrickCTR<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

3686-3932 (7618)

Research grade

NeutralBen Shelton at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

2 of 12 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ben Shelton wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.