Hersonissos 3: Lorenzo Angelini vs Robin Bertrand
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Robin Bertrand (90%) · Robin Bertrand at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Robin Bertrand
10
Robin Bertrand 90%
$1.0K
$65.82
65.1¢ → 65.5¢
+1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralRobin Bertrand at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Robin Bertrandavg 64¢ | $431.21 | $475 | +$43.79 | 51% 3156-3056 (6212) |
TH thirdt1me | Robin Bertrandavg 66¢ | $264 | $274 | +$10 | 31% 51-112 (163) |
 RN1CTR | Lorenzo Angeliniavg 28¢ | $175.45 | $184.55 | +$9.1 | 58% 3741-2693 (6434) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 68¢ | $34 | $34.25 | +$0.25 | 29% 239-572 (811) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 61.2¢ | $30.06 | $33.59 | +$3.54 | 56% 3774-2942 (6716) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 73¢ | $8.82 | $8.76 | -$0.06 | 24% 201-625 (826) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 74¢ | $7.69 | $7.12 | -$0.57 | 50% 1375-1392 (2767) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 70¢ | $6.3 | $6.35 | +$0.04 | 54% 93-78 (171) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 73¢ | $5.38 | $5.05 | -$0.33 | 24% 199-638 (837) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Robin Bertrandavg 80¢ | $4 | $4.05 | +$0.05 | 11% 57-450 (507) |
Invested
$431.21
Value
$475
PnL
+$43.79
Record
51%
3156-3056 (6212)
Invested
$264
Value
$274
PnL
+$10
Record
31%
51-112 (163)
RN1CTRInvested
$175.45
Value
$184.55
PnL
+$9.1
Record
58%
3741-2693 (6434)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$34
Value
$34.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
29%
239-572 (811)
Invested
$30.06
Value
$33.59
PnL
+$3.54
Record
56%
3774-2942 (6716)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$0.06
Record
24%
201-625 (826)
Invested
$7.69
Value
$7.12
PnL
-$0.57
Record
50%
1375-1392 (2767)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.35
PnL
+$0.04
Record
54%
93-78 (171)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.33
Record
24%
199-638 (837)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
11%
57-450 (507)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
6512395314597884
Robin Bertrand — $475
thirdt1me
Robin Bertrand — $274
RN1
CTRLorenzo Angelini — $184.55
machinelearned
Robin Bertrand — $34.25
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Robin Bertrand — $33.59
LightParadox
Robin Bertrand — $8.76
Flaznorp
Robin Bertrand — $7.12
0xheavy888
Robin Bertrand — $6.35
Limousin
Robin Bertrand — $5.05
BillBenter2026
Robin Bertrand — $4.05