Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Santiago De la Fuente, while the market favors Felipe Meligeni Alves (96%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Montevideo: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Santiago De la Fuente

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Santiago De la Fuente (57%) · Santiago De la Fuente at 4.5¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 22

Felipe Meligeni Alves96¢Santiago De la Fuente4¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Santiago De la Fuente

Consensus Traders

Santiago De la Fuente 57%

Total Value

$193.26

Combined PnL

-$3.57

Research grade

AvoidSantiago De la Fuente at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Santiago De la Fuente

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Felipe Meligeni Alves 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Felipe Meligeni Alves96%

Santiago De la Fuente5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felipe Meligeni Alves3 traders

Total Value$178.93

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$2.15

Santiago De la Fuente4 traders

Total Value$14.33

Total Shares217

Combined PnL-$1.43

Felipe Meligeni Alves — 43%Santiago De la Fuente — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Rafifa	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 94¢	$100	$101.6	+$1.6	— 10-6 (16)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 92¢	$49.82	$50.16	+$0.33	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 94¢	$31.26	$27.18	-$4.08	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 6¢	$10.02	$7.55	-$2.47	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 12.7¢	$5.03	$5.72	+$0.69	48% 469-508 (977)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.73	+$0.32	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.33	+$0.03	34% 264-519 (783)

Rafifa

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$100

Value

$101.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

—

10-6 (16)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$49.82

Value

$50.16

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

Flaznorp<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$31.26

Value

$27.18

PnL

-$4.08

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$10.02

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$2.47

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$0.69

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

babybellsCTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

34%

264-519 (783)

Research grade

AvoidSantiago De la Fuente at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Santiago De la Fuente

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Felipe Meligeni Alves 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Santiago De la Fuente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.