Monastir: Duje Ajdukovic vs Moez Echargui

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Moez Echargui (67%) · Moez Echargui at 97¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Duje Ajdukovic3¢Moez Echargui97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Moez Echargui

Consensus Traders

Moez Echargui 67%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 97¢

+48% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralMoez Echargui at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Moez Echargui

14 of 21 top traders (67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Duje Ajdukovic3%

Moez Echargui97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Moez Echargui14 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares9,010

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Duje Ajdukovic7 traders

Total Value$102.91

Total Shares1,726

Combined PnL-$148.14

Moez Echargui — 67%Duje Ajdukovic — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Moez Echargui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDuje Ajdukovic 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrMoez Echargui 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoez Echargui 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Moez Echargui 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Moez Echarguiavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$790	16% 106-570 (676)
TRCM	Moez Echarguiavg 58.1¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$779.4	8% 35-416 (451)
MA MadridTime	Moez Echarguiavg 94.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$43.3	25% 215-633 (848)
TH thestingsnake	Moez Echarguiavg 59.9¢	$780.57	$1.2K	+$435.31	18% 72-338 (410)
38 38791873984189	Moez Echarguiavg 59.6¢	$440.67	$532.59	+$91.92	48% 859-937 (1796)
SC SchruteBucks	Moez Echarguiavg 65.5¢	$1.1K	$392.89	-$48.83	20% 118-480 (598)
FL Flaznorp	Moez Echarguiavg 64.7¢	$302.02	$344.75	+$42.72	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Moez Echarguiavg 79.9¢	$188.21	$202.38	+$14.17	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
TH thirdt1me	Moez Echarguiavg 58¢	$219.05	$181	-$3.13	37% 70-118 (188)
VeryLucky888	Moez Echarguiavg 55¢	$107.37	$117.37	+$14.99	49% 231-239 (470)
OM omnibus-076daa	Moez Echarguiavg 54.1¢	$93.28	$108.63	+$15.35	37% 191-330 (521)
PA pauleta23<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 74.5¢	$60.85	$79.65	+$18.8	22% 118-423 (541)
LI Limousin<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 95¢	$69.62	$68.58	-$1.04	25% 213-654 (867)
BA babybellsCTR	Duje Ajdukovicavg 27.2¢	$141.66	$34.35	-$15.11	18% 78-366 (444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Duje Ajdukovicavg 5.5¢	$61.11	$27.73	-$33.39	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 85.1¢	$18.73	$20.57	+$1.84	14% 73-461 (534)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Duje Ajdukovicavg 14.9¢	$30	$19.59	-$10.41	25% 213-654 (867)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Duje Ajdukovicavg 39¢	$12.71	$7.82	-$4.89	48% 421-450 (871)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Duje Ajdukovicavg 23¢	$7.02	$7.33	+$0.31	35% 335-614 (949)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Duje Ajdukovicavg 36.7¢	$90.24	$5.54	-$84.71	25% 214-643 (857)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Duje Ajdukovicavg 5¢	$0.51	$0.56	+$0.05	52% 62-58 (120)

tradecraft

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$790

Record

16%

106-570 (676)

TRCM

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,149

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$779.4

Record

35-416 (451)

MadridTime

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,359.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$43.3

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

thestingsnake

Moez Echargui

Invested

$780.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$435.31

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

38791873984189

Moez Echargui

Invested

$440.67

Value

$532.59

PnL

+$91.92

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

SchruteBucks

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,132.04

Value

$392.89

PnL

-$48.83

Record

20%

118-480 (598)

Flaznorp

Moez Echargui

Invested

$302.02

Value

$344.75

PnL

+$42.72

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Moez Echargui

Invested

$188.21

Value

$202.38

PnL

+$14.17

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

thirdt1me

Moez Echargui

Invested

$219.05

Value

$181

PnL

-$3.13

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

VeryLucky888

Moez Echargui

Invested

$107.37

Value

$117.37

PnL

+$14.99

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

omnibus-076daa

Moez Echargui

Invested

$93.28

Value

$108.63

PnL

+$15.35

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

pauleta23<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$60.85

Value

$79.65

PnL

+$18.8

Record

22%

118-423 (541)

Limousin<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$69.62

Value

$68.58

PnL

-$1.04

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

babybellsCTR

Duje Ajdukovic

Invested

$141.66

Value

$34.35

PnL

-$15.11

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Duje Ajdukovic

Invested

$61.11

Value

$27.73

PnL

-$33.39

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

BillBenter2026<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$18.73

Value

$20.57

PnL

+$1.84

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

VenusianCTR<$100

Duje Ajdukovic

Invested

$30

Value

$19.59

PnL

-$10.41

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Duje Ajdukovic

Invested

$12.71

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$4.89

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Duje Ajdukovic

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.33

PnL

+$0.31

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Duje Ajdukovic

Invested

$90.24

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$84.71

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Duje Ajdukovic

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

62-58 (120)

Research grade

NeutralMoez Echargui at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Moez Echargui

14 of 21 top traders (67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Moez Echargui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDuje Ajdukovic 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrMoez Echargui 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoez Echargui 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Moez Echargui 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Moez Echargui wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.