Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Michael Agwi, while the market favors Viktor Durasovic (55%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Helsinki: Michael Agwi vs Viktor Durasovic

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Agwi (63%) · Michael Agwi at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Michael Agwi46¢Viktor Durasovic54¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michael Agwi

Consensus Traders

Michael Agwi 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$3.97

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 45.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichael Agwi at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Agwi

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Viktor Durasovic 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michael Agwi46%

Viktor Durasovic55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Agwi5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,656

Combined PnL+$10.36

Viktor Durasovic3 traders

Total Value$829.03

Total Shares1,518

Combined PnL-$6.39

Michael Agwi — 63%Viktor Durasovic — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Michael Agwi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Viktor Durasovic) and the top 1000 (7 on Michael Agwi) disagree here.

whaleMichael Agwi 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichael Agwi 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedViktor Durasovic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michael Agwi 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Michael Agwiavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ Viktor Durasovic leg	Viktor Durasovicavg 50¢	$525	$577.5	+$52.5
└ Michael Agwi leg	Michael Agwiavg 50¢	$525	$472.5	-$52.5
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Michael Agwiavg 45¢	$934.65	$945.04	+$10.39	11% 28-224 (252)
VeryLucky888	Viktor Durasovicavg 55¢	$709.14	$546.66	-$3.7	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
38 38791873984189	Viktor Durasovicavg 55¢	$278.85	$276.32	-$2.54	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Michael Agwiavg 45¢	$155.59	$155.59	-$0	44% 92-115 (207)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Michael Agwiavg 45¢	$72	$72.8	+$0.8	46% 113-135 (248)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Michael Agwiavg 46.8¢	$24.25	$23.32	-$0.94	56% 665-530 (1195)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Michael Agwiavg 45¢	$9.82	$9.93	+$0.11	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Viktor Durasovicavg 56.4¢	$6.21	$6.06	-$0.15	46% 631-739 (1370)

NotJumpARB<$100

Michael Agwi

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

Viktor Durasovic$52550¢+$52.5

Michael Agwi$52550¢-$52.5

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Michael Agwi

Invested

$934.65

Value

$945.04

PnL

+$10.39

Record

11%

28-224 (252)

VeryLucky888

Viktor Durasovic

Invested

$709.14

Value

$546.66

PnL

-$3.7

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

38791873984189

Viktor Durasovic

Invested

$278.85

Value

$276.32

PnL

-$2.54

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Michael Agwi

Invested

$155.59

Value

$155.59

PnL

-$0

Record

44%

92-115 (207)

efntrickCTR<$100

Michael Agwi

Invested

$72

Value

$72.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

46%

113-135 (248)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Michael Agwi

Invested

$24.25

Value

$23.32

PnL

-$0.94

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Michael Agwi

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Viktor Durasovic

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

Research grade

NeutralMichael Agwi at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Agwi

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Viktor Durasovic 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Michael Agwi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Viktor Durasovic) and the top 1000 (7 on Michael Agwi) disagree here.

whaleMichael Agwi 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichael Agwi 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedViktor Durasovic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michael Agwi 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Agwi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.