Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Kicker (78%) · Nicolas Kicker at 75¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Nicolas Kicker
9
Nicolas Kicker 78%
$14.5K
$424.5
72.9¢ → 75¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNicolas Kicker at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Nicolas Kickeravg 73.2¢ | $6.1K | $6.3K | +$260.04 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
38 38791873984189 | Nicolas Kickeravg 72.2¢ | $5.3K | $3.6K | +$226.19 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Federico Aguilaravg 24.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$40.1 | 49% 3292-3422 (6714) |
SE sentrio | Nicolas Kickeravg 73.1¢ | $988.21 | $965.94 | -$22.27 | 50% 25480-25186 (50666) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Nicolas Kickeravg 73¢ | $736.62 | $741.22 | +$4.61 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Nicolas Kickeravg 76¢ | $304 | $304 | +$0 | 51% 1789-1707 (3496) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Federico Aguilaravg 24¢ | $128.75 | $125.91 | -$2.84 | 61% 14032-9038 (23070) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 76¢ | $9.99 | $10.13 | +$0.13 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 67.1¢ | $6.71 | $5.45 | -$1.26 | 52% 8574-7820 (16394) |
Invested
$6,067.46
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$260.04
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$5,325.12
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$226.19
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$2,424.53
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$40.1
Record
49%
3292-3422 (6714)
Invested
$988.21
Value
$965.94
PnL
-$22.27
Record
50%
25480-25186 (50666)
Invested
$736.62
Value
$741.22
PnL
+$4.61
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$304
Value
$304
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1789-1707 (3496)
Invested
$128.75
Value
$125.91
PnL
-$2.84
Record
61%
14032-9038 (23070)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$10.13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$5.45
PnL
-$1.26
Record
52%
8574-7820 (16394)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Nicolas Kicker — $6.3K
38791873984189
Nicolas Kicker — $3.6K
dv-pm
CTRFederico Aguilar — $2.4K
sentrio
Nicolas Kicker — $965.94
omnibus-076daa
Nicolas Kicker — $741.22
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Nicolas Kicker — $304
Lilybaeum
CTRFederico Aguilar — $125.91
rayvanmechelen
Nicolas Kicker — $10.13
ameisgoat11
Nicolas Kicker — $5.45