Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thiago Seyboth Wild (50%) · Thiago Seyboth Wild at 56¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Thiago Seyboth Wild
6
Thiago Seyboth Wild 50%
$53.41
-$1.06
Research grade
NeutralThiago Seyboth Wild at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Thiago Seyboth Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 55¢ | $26.94 | $27.43 | +$0.49 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 55¢ | $11 | $11.2 | +$0.2 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Facundo Acostaavg 49.9¢ | $7.93 | $6.91 | -$1.02 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Facundo Acostaavg 49.2¢ | $3.28 | $2.9 | -$0.38 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 57.2¢ | $2.86 | $2.8 | -$0.06 | 52% 9014-8167 (17181) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Facundo Acostaavg 49.2¢ | $2.46 | $2.18 | -$0.29 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
Invested
$26.94
Value
$27.43
PnL
+$0.49
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Invested
$7.93
Value
$6.91
PnL
-$1.02
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$0.38
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
9014-8167 (17181)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.29
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.