Will CA Colegiales win on 2026-11-15?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 83¢ · $501 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
2 arb excluded
$500.84
-$72.08
72.9¢ → 82.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $185.92 | $157.44 | -$28.48 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.5¢ | $170.96 | $123.59 | -$47.37 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $14.96 | $33.84 | +$18.89 | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $259.65 | $157.28 | -$34.13 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $122.34 | $85.12 | -$37.22 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.4¢ | $71.63 | $72.16 | +$3.09 | |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 80¢ | $150.96 | $96.24 | -$54.72 | 38% 1375-2208 (3583) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $49.79 | $51.76 | +$1.97 | 49% 1349-1428 (2777) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Noavg 50¢ | $146 | $34.77 | -$18.31 | 64% 145-83 (228) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $1.92 | $2.31 | +$0.39 | 52% 2510-2301 (4811) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $1.05 | -$1.4 | 48% 2576-2780 (5356) |
Invested
$185.92
Value
$157.44
PnL
-$28.48
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
Both legs:
Invested
$259.65
Value
$157.28
PnL
-$34.13
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.96
Value
$96.24
PnL
-$54.72
Record
38%
1375-2208 (3583)
poshposh<$100Invested
$49.79
Value
$51.76
PnL
+$1.97
Record
49%
1349-1428 (2777)
Invested
$146
Value
$34.77
PnL
-$18.31
Record
64%
145-83 (228)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$2.31
PnL
+$0.39
Record
52%
2510-2301 (4811)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$1.4
Record
48%
2576-2780 (5356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.