Will CSD Tristan Suarez win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $768 held · ended Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$768.44

Combined PnL

$4.42

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 96.9¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$722.68

Total Shares763

Combined PnL+$56.74

Yes3 traders

Total Value$45.76

Total Shares673

Combined PnL-$52.32

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 82¢	$328.85	$372	+$44.05	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95¢	$88.43	$90.19	+$1.76	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$85.49	$88.66	+$3.17	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$68.68	$70.82	+$2.14	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$62.56	$63.8	+$1.24	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Noavg 50¢	$148	$37.21	+$4.38	63% 147-86 (233)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$84.82	$32.04	-$52.78	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$9.18	$9.24	+$0.06	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$4.08	$4.48	+$0.39	54% 6095-5185 (11280)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$328.85

Value

$372

PnL

+$44.05

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$88.43

Value

$90.19

PnL

+$1.76

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$85.49

Value

$88.66

PnL

+$3.17

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$68.68

Value

$70.82

PnL

+$2.14

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$62.56

Value

$63.8

PnL

+$1.24

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$148

Value

$37.21

PnL

+$4.38

Record

63%

147-86 (233)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.82

Value

$32.04

PnL

-$52.78

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.18

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.