Will CD Godoy Cruz win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$565.21

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 72.5¢

+47% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,632

Combined PnL+$589.19

No8 traders

Total Value$37.15

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$23.97

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 48.9¢	$445.51	$792.39	+$346.88	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 48¢	$275.58	$424.76	+$149.18	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 48¢	$106.8	$176.49	+$79.69	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$17.94	$26.39	+$8.45	42% 762-1074 (1836)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 88.2¢	$23.45	$23.45	+$0	78% 833-236 (1069)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$24.96	$21	-$3.96	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$6.68	$6.01	-$0.66	45% 1018-1224 (2242)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.78	$5.7	+$2.92	35% 516-946 (1462)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$11.2	$4.54	-$6.66	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$2.35	$4.41	+$2.06	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$7.33	$1.69	-$5.64	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$6.24	$1.45	-$4.79	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$2.84	$1.19	-$1.65	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$0.72	$0.77	+$0.05	46% 911-1085 (1996)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 27.7¢	$1.16	$0.49	-$0.66	54% 6095-5185 (11280)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$445.51

Value

$792.39

PnL

+$346.88

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$275.58

Value

$424.76

PnL

+$149.18

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$106.8

Value

$176.49

PnL

+$79.69

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.94

Value

$26.39

PnL

+$8.45

Record

42%

762-1074 (1836)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.45

Value

$23.45

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

833-236 (1069)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$24.96

Value

$21

PnL

-$3.96

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$6.68

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.66

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.78

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$2.92

Record

35%

516-946 (1462)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$6.66

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$2.06

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$7.33

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$5.64

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.24

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$4.79

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$2.84

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

911-1085 (1996)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.66

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.