Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CD Godoy Cruz vs. CSD Tristan Suarez end in a draw?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 22¢ · $124 held · ended Nov 15

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$124.34

Combined PnL

-$4.08

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$66.91

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$2.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$57.43

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$6.26

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$46.8	$48.81	+$2	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$32	$32	+$0	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$22.66	$16.46	-$6.2	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 80¢	$14.2	$14.2	+$0	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$5.49	$5.16	-$0.32	41% 1200-1727 (2927)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.73	$3.9	+$0.17	35% 509-934 (1443)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.55	$3.82	+$0.27	38% 1398-2248 (3646)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$46.8

Value

$48.81

PnL

+$2

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$32

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.66

Value

$16.46

PnL

-$6.2

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.32

Record

41%

1200-1727 (2927)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.17

Record

35%

509-934 (1443)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.27

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.