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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy vs. Club Almirante Brown: O/U 1.5

Resolved Over. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$126.52

Combined PnL

-$7.66

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%
Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders
Total Value$102.16
Total Shares102
Combined PnL+$9.82
Under6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares41
Combined PnL-$17.48
Over — 40%Under — 60%
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100
Under

Invested

$33.84

Value

$24.36

PnL

-$9.48

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

Both legs:

Under$20.9643.3¢-$20.96
Over$12.8752.8¢+$11.49
US
User7429<$100
Over

Invested

$37.24

Value

$38

PnL

+$0.76

Record

42%

384-536 (920)

dips.<$100
Over

Invested

$25.48

Value

$26

PnL

+$0.52

Record

48%

1156-1264 (2420)

SM
smithagent<$100
Over

Invested

$21.13

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

809-954 (1763)

TO
topdogbigboi<$100
Over

Invested

$8.5

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$8.16

Record

38%

1351-2180 (3531)

VE
VenusianCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$8.23

Value

—

PnL

-$8.23

Record

38%

1210-2005 (3215)

LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$2.28

Value

—

PnL

-$2.28

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100
Under

Invested

$1.87

Value

—

PnL

-$1.87

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

—

PnL

-$2.25

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

GO
GoalLineGhostCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

—

PnL

-$2.85

Record

53%

2421-2179 (4600)

OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR
Under

Invested

$200

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

141-74 (215)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x5a9c2f4b...459db1
Slug
argpn-ge-alb-2026-11-14-total-1pt5

Traders in this Market

FL

Flaznorp

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.48
US

User7429

Over — $38

+$0.76

dips.

Over — $26

+$0.52
SM

smithagent

Over — $21.5

+$0.38
TO

topdogbigboi

Over — $16.66

+$8.16
VE

Venusian

CTR

Under — $0

-$8.23
LI

LightParadox

CTR

Under — $0

-$2.28

VeryLucky888

CTR

Under — $0

-$1.87
MA

MadridTime

CTR

Under — $0

-$2.25
GO

GoalLineGhost

CTR

Under — $0

-$2.85
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