Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy win on 2026-11-14?
3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 38¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 27%
$1.8K
$79.29
53¢ → 37.5¢
-29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 53¢ | $910.13 | $953.06 | +$42.93 | 13% 44-292 (336) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 47¢ | $276.35 | $276.35 | +$0 | 35% 520-947 (1467) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 47¢ | $221.7 | $221.7 | +$0 | 53% 2249-2030 (4279) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 49.8¢ | $183.73 | $219.17 | +$35.43 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $47.47 | $47.47 | +$0 | 55% 547-442 (989) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $18.8 | $18.8 | +$0 | 53% 7213-6305 (13518) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $12.2 | $12.3 | +$0.1 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $6.23 | $6.95 | +$0.72 | 32% 385-828 (1213) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 51¢ | $195.6 | $4.9 | +$0.2 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.5 | -$0.15 | 48% 2245-2407 (4652) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $2.19 | $2.24 | +$0.05 | 38% 1175-1954 (3129) |
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$910.13
Value
$953.06
PnL
+$42.93
Record
13%
44-292 (336)
Invested
$276.35
Value
$276.35
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
520-947 (1467)
Invested
$221.7
Value
$221.7
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2249-2030 (4279)
Invested
$183.73
Value
$219.17
PnL
+$35.43
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$47.47
Value
$47.47
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
547-442 (989)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7213-6305 (13518)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$12.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$6.23
Value
$6.95
PnL
+$0.72
Record
32%
385-828 (1213)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$195.6
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
2245-2407 (4652)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0.05
Record
38%
1175-1954 (3129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.