Will Gimnasia Y Tiro de Salta win on 2026-11-15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$6.1K
$635.24
83.1¢ → 63.5¢
-24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 83¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$92.82 | 54% 6261-5369 (11630) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $398.3 | $934.55 | +$543.85 | 52% 2652-2458 (5110) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $491.7 | $493.2 | +$1.5 | 48% 4971-5335 (10306) |
 alpheclabs2 | Noavg 82¢ | $223.9 | $232.09 | +$8.19 | 46% 410-488 (898) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 84.4¢ | $217.72 | $211.41 | -$6.31 | 38% 1507-2416 (3923) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 84.8¢ | $151.44 | $146.49 | -$4.95 | 39% 1528-2435 (3963) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 84¢ | $125.37 | $126.86 | +$1.49 | 54% 2109-1811 (3920) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $54.61 | $53.31 | -$1.3 | 38% 1525-2471 (3996) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.8 | $0.75 | -$0.05 | 41% 1262-1835 (3097) |
RN1Invested
$3,852.03
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$92.82
Record
54%
6261-5369 (11630)
Invested
$398.3
Value
$934.55
PnL
+$543.85
Record
52%
2652-2458 (5110)
Invested
$491.7
Value
$493.2
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
4971-5335 (10306)
alpheclabs2Invested
$223.9
Value
$232.09
PnL
+$8.19
Record
46%
410-488 (898)
Invested
$217.72
Value
$211.41
PnL
-$6.31
Record
38%
1507-2416 (3923)
Invested
$151.44
Value
$146.49
PnL
-$4.95
Record
39%
1528-2435 (3963)
VeryLucky888Invested
$125.37
Value
$126.86
PnL
+$1.49
Record
54%
2109-1811 (3920)
Invested
$54.61
Value
$53.31
PnL
-$1.3
Record
38%
1525-2471 (3996)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$0.05
Record
41%
1262-1835 (3097)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.