Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ferro Carril Oeste win on 2026-11-15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 38¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$65.39

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 37.5¢

-9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$634.02

Total Shares1,714

Combined PnL-$70.87

Yes4 traders

Total Value$185.47

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$5.47

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 42¢	$459.02	$404.71	-$54.31	49% 4647-4916 (9563)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$274.29	$263.33	-$10.96	52% 2477-2265 (4742)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.9¢	$160.2	$141.42	-$18.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$114.08	$121.91	+$7.83
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 38¢	$132.32	$128.84	-$3.48	38% 1322-2171 (3493)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 41.9¢	$111.59	$98.62	-$12.98	41% 1183-1677 (2860)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$59.88	$63.37	+$3.49	56% 652-516 (1168)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$52.07	$52.91	+$0.84	42% 548-747 (1295)
NM NM-P<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$52.07	$52.91	+$0.84	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 60.7¢	$30.33	$16.28	+$0.3	53% 1892-1654 (3546)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.85	-$0.1	48% 2529-2748 (5277)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$459.02

Value

$404.71

PnL

-$54.31

Record

49%

4647-4916 (9563)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$274.29

Value

$263.33

PnL

-$10.96

Record

52%

2477-2265 (4742)

Both legs:

No$160.241.9¢-$18.79

Yes$114.0859¢+$7.83

LimousinCTR

Invested

$132.32

Value

$128.84

PnL

-$3.48

Record

38%

1322-2171 (3493)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$111.59

Value

$98.62

PnL

-$12.98

Record

41%

1183-1677 (2860)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.88

Value

$63.37

PnL

+$3.49

Record

56%

652-516 (1168)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.07

Value

$52.91

PnL

+$0.84

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

NM-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.07

Value

$52.91

PnL

+$0.84

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.33

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

1892-1654 (3546)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2529-2748 (5277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.