Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ferro Carril Oeste vs. Gimnasia Y Tiro de Salta end in a draw?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 28¢ · $368 held · ends Nov 15

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$368.33

Combined PnL

$1.34

Smart Money Entry

27.9¢ → 27.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$357.14

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL+$1.54

No2 traders

Total Value$11.18

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$0.2

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$241.95	$241.95	+$0	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$54.49	$54.49	+$0	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$29.67	$31.21	+$1.54	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$21.98	$21.98	-$0	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$8.81	$8.55	-$0.26	52% 2600-2381 (4981)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.17	$4.16	-$0	41% 1228-1765 (2993)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.35	$3.35	+$0	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 72¢	$7.2	$2.63	+$0.06	54% 2045-1764 (3809)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$241.95

Value

$241.95

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.49

Value

$54.49

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.67

Value

$31.21

PnL

+$1.54

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.98

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$8.81

Value

$8.55

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

2600-2381 (4981)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1228-1765 (2993)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.