Deportivo Madryn vs. CD Maipu: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$40.13

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 75.9¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL+$164.49

Under5 traders

Total Value$74.55

Total Shares495

Combined PnL-$124.36

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$767.25	$767.25	+$0	99% 566-7 (573)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 60¢	$315.16	$474.85	+$159.69	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 40¢	$188.52	$70.3	-$118.22	53% 2358-2131 (4489)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.8	+$1.4	78% 809-226 (1035)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 37¢	$2.03	$5.44	+$3.41	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.4	$1.4	-$3	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$2.37	$1.11	-$1.26	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$0.88	$0.88	-$0	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.75	$0.87	-$1.88	35% 565-1034 (1599)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$767.25

Value

$767.25

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

566-7 (573)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$315.16

Value

$474.85

PnL

+$159.69

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$188.52

Value

$70.3

PnL

-$118.22

Record

53%

2358-2131 (4489)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$1.4

Record

78%

809-226 (1035)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$2.03

Value

$5.44

PnL

+$3.41

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$3

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.37

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$1.26

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$1.88

Record

35%

565-1034 (1599)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

75.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.