Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Deportivo Madryn vs. CD Maipu: O/U 1.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 27¢ · $544 held · ended Nov 14

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$543.86

Combined PnL

$34.6

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 26.5¢

-22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$265.62

Total Shares740

Combined PnL+$15.69

Over2 traders

Total Value$278.24

Total Shares385

Combined PnL+$18.91

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.8¢	$205.72	$228.55	+$22.83	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 67¢	$192.34	$213.74	+$21.41	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 67¢	$67	$64.5	-$2.5	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 34.3¢	$25.88	$18.47	-$7.41	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$7.62	$7.62	+$0	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$2.45	$2.45	-$0	48% 2231-2388 (4619)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$2.01	$2.07	+$0.05	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$2.05	$2.01	-$0.04	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.73	$1.78	+$0.05	36% 513-930 (1443)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.75	+$0.05	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$0.78	$0.94	+$0.16	55% 532-434 (966)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$205.72

Value

$228.55

PnL

+$22.83

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$192.34

Value

$213.74

PnL

+$21.41

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$67

Value

$64.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.88

Value

$18.47

PnL

-$7.41

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.62

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2231-2388 (4619)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

532-434 (966)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.