Will Deportivo Madryn win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 98¢ · $526 held · ended Nov 14

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$526.12

Combined PnL

-$31.39

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 97.8¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$312.19

Total Shares330

Combined PnL+$16.85

No5 traders

Total Value$82.64

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$48.24

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rocky31	Yesavg 93¢	$249.7	$262.99	+$13.29	44% 112-142 (254)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 64.4¢	$128.84	$131.29	+$2.45	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.4¢	$71.07	$103.23	+$32.16
└ No leg	Noavg 13.4¢	$57.77	$28.06	-$29.71
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 45.5¢	$110.67	$72.99	-$37.68	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$23.75	$23.63	-$0.13	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$19.24	$22.08	+$2.84	55% 547-442 (989)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$6.36	$3.91	-$2.45	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.5	+$0.85	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$2.05	$2.85	+$0.8	45% 405-503 (908)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$2.55	$2.55	-$0	47% 985-1122 (2107)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$9.25	$0.34	-$8.91	37% 1070-1834 (2904)

Rocky31

Yes

Invested

$249.7

Value

$262.99

PnL

+$13.29

Record

44%

112-142 (254)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$128.84

Value

$131.29

PnL

+$2.45

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Both legs:

Yes$71.0764.4¢+$32.16

No$57.7713.4¢-$29.71

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$110.67

Value

$72.99

PnL

-$37.68

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.75

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.24

Value

$22.08

PnL

+$2.84

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$2.45

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.8

Record

45%

405-503 (908)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$8.91

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.