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NoNoYesYesYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Colon de Santa Fe vs. CA Ferrocarril Midland end in a draw?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 60%
Total Value
$92.05
Combined PnL
-$4.99
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$92.05
Total Shares92
Combined PnL+$2.94
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares32
Combined PnL-$7.93
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 82.2¢ | $83.4 | $87.05 | +$3.65 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $5 | +$0.95 | 48% 2318-2517 (4835) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $5.03 | — | -$5.03 | 38% 1162-1897 (3059) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $0.53 | — | -$0.53 | 38% 1276-2064 (3340) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $2.37 | — | -$2.37 | 37% 1136-1943 (3079) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | — | -$1.66 | 25% 1338-4026 (5364) |
FL
Flaznorp<$100Invested
$83.4
Value
$87.05
PnL
+$3.65
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
FE
ferdinand2<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.95
Record
48%
2318-2517 (4835)
MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100Invested
$5.03
Value
—
PnL
-$5.03
Record
38%
1162-1897 (3059)
TO
topdogbigboiCTR<$100Invested
$0.53
Value
—
PnL
-$0.53
Record
38%
1276-2064 (3340)
VE
VenusianCTR<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
—
PnL
-$2.37
Record
37%
1136-1943 (3079)
AH
aHjCz<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.66
Record
25%
1338-4026 (5364)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd9dd973b...57eeea
Slug
argpn-col-afm-2026-11-14-draw