Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will CA Temperley win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
5
No 80%
2 arb excluded
$379.18
$93.68
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $170.65 | $49.11 | -$121.54 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $139.04 | — | -$139.04 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.4¢ | $31.61 | $49.11 | +$17.5 | |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 75.8¢ | $131.73 | $173.86 | +$42.13 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $78 | $53 | -$25 | 50% 2600-2575 (5175) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.8¢ | $39.14 | $53 | +$13.86 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $38.86 | — | -$38.86 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $14.38 | $42.42 | +$28.04 | 38% 1175-1954 (3129) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $31.8 | $42.4 | +$10.6 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $4.23 | $18.39 | +$14.16 | 35% 399-742 (1141) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 48% 2245-2407 (4652) |
Invested
$170.65
Value
$49.11
PnL
-$121.54
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Both legs:
Invested
$131.73
Value
$173.86
PnL
+$42.13
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
Invested
$78
Value
$53
PnL
-$25
Record
50%
2600-2575 (5175)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.38
Value
$42.42
PnL
+$28.04
Record
38%
1175-1954 (3129)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$42.4
PnL
+$10.6
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$18.39
PnL
+$14.16
Record
35%
399-742 (1141)
Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
48%
2245-2407 (4652)