Will CA Patronato Parana win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$6.1K
$65.47
64.5¢ → 66.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 64.6¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$78.03 | 50% 19815-20158 (39973) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 65.1¢ | $912.5 | $1.2K | +$9.59 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.1¢ | $839.3 | $856.92 | +$26.42 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $326.06 | $309.68 | -$16.83 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$21.83 | 50% 26428-26255 (52683) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.7¢ | $718.86 | $716.41 | -$2.46 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $388.8 | $369.43 | -$19.37 | |
 poshposhCTR | Yesavg 35¢ | $630 | $603 | -$27 | 58% 11432-8282 (19714) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 61.6¢ | $234.2 | $252.7 | +$18.5 | 58% 48512-34664 (83176) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 67¢ | $237 | $233 | -$4 | 47% 10054-11163 (21217) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $38.29 | $38 | -$0.29 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $2.55 | $2.91 | +$0.23 | 53% 6371-5759 (12130) |
Invested
$2,613.89
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$78.03
Record
50%
19815-20158 (39973)
Invested
$912.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$9.59
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,107.67
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$21.83
Record
50%
26428-26255 (52683)
Both legs:
poshposhCTRInvested
$630
Value
$603
PnL
-$27
Record
58%
11432-8282 (19714)
Invested
$234.2
Value
$252.7
PnL
+$18.5
Record
58%
48512-34664 (83176)
Invested
$237
Value
$233
PnL
-$4
Record
47%
10054-11163 (21217)
Invested
$38.29
Value
$38
PnL
-$0.29
Record
51%
997-961 (1958)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
6371-5759 (12130)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.