Will Atletico de Rafaela win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$5.01
67.3¢ → 66¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $622.61 | $631.81 | +$9.2 | 50% 26428-26255 (52683) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.8¢ | $461.6 | $466.2 | +$4.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $161.01 | $165.61 | +$4.6 | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $260.92 | $330.99 | +$9.85 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.8¢ | $194 | $190.4 | -$3.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $124.37 | $140.59 | +$13.45 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 67.3¢ | $318.69 | $312.33 | -$4 | 58% 48512-34664 (83176) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $210.26 | $204.07 | -$6.19 | 50% 19815-20158 (39973) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $59.57 | $60.64 | +$1.07 | 48% 7159-7651 (14810) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $17.99 | $20.78 | +$2.79 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $16.73 | $16.81 | +$0.08 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $8.29 | $9.39 | +$1.1 | 53% 6371-5759 (12130) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $6.65 | +$0.15 | 47% 10054-11163 (21217) |
Invested
$622.61
Value
$631.81
PnL
+$9.2
Record
50%
26428-26255 (52683)
Both legs:
Invested
$260.92
Value
$330.99
PnL
+$9.85
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Both legs:
Invested
$318.69
Value
$312.33
PnL
-$4
Record
58%
48512-34664 (83176)
Invested
$210.26
Value
$204.07
PnL
-$6.19
Record
50%
19815-20158 (39973)
Invested
$59.57
Value
$60.64
PnL
+$1.07
Record
48%
7159-7651 (14810)
Invested
$17.99
Value
$20.78
PnL
+$2.79
Record
51%
997-961 (1958)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$16.73
Value
$16.81
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.29
Value
$9.39
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
6371-5759 (12130)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
47%
10054-11163 (21217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.