Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CA Banfield vs. Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (91%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares10,324

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over1 trader

Total Value$9.55

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.45

Under — 91%Over — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 59.8¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$212.13	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.6¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$425.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.8¢	$2.8K	$2.1K	-$638.06
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 59.5¢	$4.1K	$3.4K	-$691.36	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 60¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$17.6	40% 131-200 (331)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 60¢	$233.07	$235.94	+$2.87	42% 1060-1490 (2550)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$82.61	$82.61	+$0	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$47.7	$54.9	+$7.2	55% 547-442 (989)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$50.1	$49.51	-$0.6	35% 520-947 (1467)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 99¢	$10	$9.55	-$0.45	41% 471-687 (1158)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$8.25	$8.34	+$0.09	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46¢	$510.26	$0.55	-$509.7	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 76¢	$30.4	$0.02	-$30.38	77% 294-89 (383)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$14.86	$0.02	-$14.84	38% 1094-1794 (2888)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,538.49

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$212.13

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

Both legs:

Over$1,779.2543.6¢+$425.93

Under$2,759.2459.8¢-$638.06

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$4,095.57

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$691.36

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$1,056.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$17.6

Record

40%

131-200 (331)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$233.07

Value

$235.94

PnL

+$2.87

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.61

Value

$82.61

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.7

Value

$54.9

PnL

+$7.2

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.1

Value

$49.51

PnL

-$0.6

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0.45

Record

41%

471-687 (1158)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$510.26

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$509.7

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.4

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$30.38

Record

77%

294-89 (383)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.86

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.84

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.