CA Banfield vs. Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 74¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$217.85

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,515

Combined PnL-$471.46

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,609

Combined PnL+$253.61

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 65.7¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$471.46	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 37.3¢	$474.69	$598.18	+$123.49	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 30¢	$304.27	$516.75	+$212.48	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 28¢	$317.63	$334.64	+$17.02	40% 130-198 (328)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 40¢	$344.2	$227.96	-$116.24	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$56	$59	+$3	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$20.58	$33.81	+$13.23	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 32.9¢	$12.3	$14.94	+$2.64	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 32.3¢	$10.35	$8.34	-$2.01	36% 513-930 (1443)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,659.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$471.46

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$474.69

Value

$598.18

PnL

+$123.49

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$304.27

Value

$516.75

PnL

+$212.48

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$317.63

Value

$334.64

PnL

+$17.02

Record

40%

130-198 (328)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$344.2

Value

$227.96

PnL

-$116.24

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56

Value

$59

PnL

+$3

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.58

Value

$33.81

PnL

+$13.23

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.3

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$2.64

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.35

Value

$8.34

PnL

-$2.01

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.