Will CA Banfield vs. Boca Juniors end in a draw?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$357

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 99.2¢

+48% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,042

Combined PnL+$772.54

Yes7 traders

Total Value$375.58

Total Shares3,848

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 66.8¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$763.1	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$1.0K	$266.74	-$742.77	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 35.9¢	$254.33	$102.74	-$151.59	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$50.86	$59.62	+$8.75	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.69	$5.38	+$0.69	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$152.61	$3.39	-$149.22	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$39.67	$0.88	-$38.79	32% 385-828 (1213)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$33.15	$0.72	-$32.43	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.53	$0.71	+$0.18	47% 985-1122 (2107)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$15.32	$0.4	-$14.92	37% 1085-1829 (2914)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,655.96

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$763.1

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,009.51

Value

$266.74

PnL

-$742.77

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$254.33

Value

$102.74

PnL

-$151.59

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$50.86

Value

$59.62

PnL

+$8.75

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.69

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.61

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$149.22

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.67

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$38.79

Record

32%

385-828 (1213)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.15

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$32.43

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.32

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$14.92

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.