Will Boca Juniors win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$319.84

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 50.5¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,684

Combined PnL+$308.64

Yes6 traders

Total Value$229.56

Total Shares351

Combined PnL+$11.2

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 39.6¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$308.27	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 62.4¢	$73.04	$78.39	+$5.35	55% 532-434 (966)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$68.82	$74.37	+$5.55	47% 319-356 (675)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 36¢	$58.81	$71.52	+$12.71	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 43¢	$49.75	$48.59	-$1.16	36% 513-930 (1443)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 42¢	$52.88	$39.03	-$13.85	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$36.09	$35.55	-$0.54	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$17.93	$19.55	+$1.62	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$19.14	$19.14	+$0	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 43.6¢	$15.95	$17.38	+$1.43	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 67.5¢	$31.07	$14.58	+$0.61	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$7.31	$7.53	+$0.22	31% 376-824 (1200)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 33¢	$6.27	$5.89	-$0.38	37% 1048-1799 (2847)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,428.38

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$308.27

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.04

Value

$78.39

PnL

+$5.35

Record

55%

532-434 (966)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.82

Value

$74.37

PnL

+$5.55

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$58.81

Value

$71.52

PnL

+$12.71

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$49.75

Value

$48.59

PnL

-$1.16

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$52.88

Value

$39.03

PnL

-$13.85

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.09

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$0.54

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$17.93

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$1.62

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.14

Value

$19.14

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$15.95

Value

$17.38

PnL

+$1.43

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.07

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$0.61

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.31

Value

$7.53

PnL

+$0.22

Record

31%

376-824 (1200)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.38

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.