Will CA Banfield win on 2026-11-14?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$56.61

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,120

Combined PnL+$65.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$8.44

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$51.55	47% 985-1122 (2107)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 96.5¢	$633.44	$595.95	-$37.49	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86¢	$515.78	$531.49	+$15.72	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 88.1¢	$186.07	$206.03	+$19.97	78% 805-225 (1030)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.6¢	$172.31	$173.69	+$1.38	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 91.6¢	$111.04	$118.12	+$7.07	35% 520-947 (1467)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 88¢	$76.61	$84.01	+$7.4	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 89¢	$88.37	$83.53	-$4.84	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$36.76	$37.02	+$0.27	77% 294-89 (383)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 90¢	$30.05	$32.22	+$2.17	32% 385-828 (1213)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 88¢	$11.38	$12.48	+$1.1	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$9.65	+$0.75	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.36	$0.84	-$0.52	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.13	-$0.17	45% 405-503 (908)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$7.8	$0.03	-$7.75	25% 1331-4013 (5344)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,135.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$51.55

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$633.44

Value

$595.95

PnL

-$37.49

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

Flaznorp

Invested

$515.78

Value

$531.49

PnL

+$15.72

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

ARocky33

Invested

$186.07

Value

$206.03

PnL

+$19.97

Record

78%

805-225 (1030)

LightParadox

Invested

$172.31

Value

$173.69

PnL

+$1.38

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$111.04

Value

$118.12

PnL

+$7.07

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$76.61

Value

$84.01

PnL

+$7.4

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$88.37

Value

$83.53

PnL

-$4.84

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$36.76

Value

$37.02

PnL

+$0.27

Record

77%

294-89 (383)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$30.05

Value

$32.22

PnL

+$2.17

Record

32%

385-828 (1213)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$11.38

Value

$12.48

PnL

+$1.1

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.52

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.17

Record

45%

405-503 (908)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$7.75

Record

25%

1331-4013 (5344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.