CA Rosario Central leading at halftime?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $313 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$312.71
-$4.23
64.2¢ → 63¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $156.52 | $153.68 | -$2.84 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $62.24 | $61.11 | -$1.13 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $39.94 | $39.94 | +$0 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $35.89 | $35.89 | +$0 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $14.17 | $13.92 | -$0.26 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $8.17 | $8.17 | +$0 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
Invested
$156.52
Value
$153.68
PnL
-$2.84
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
Invested
$62.24
Value
$61.11
PnL
-$1.13
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Invested
$39.94
Value
$39.94
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Invested
$35.89
Value
$35.89
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$14.17
Value
$13.92
PnL
-$0.26
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Invested
$8.17
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.