Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.6K
-$62.2
35.4¢ → 34.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$59.61 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $103.64 | $102.7 | +$0.57 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $88.44 | $87.5 | -$0.94 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $62.71 | $62.71 | -$0 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $36.62 | $34.92 | -$2.19 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $12.16 | $11.9 | -$0.02 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
Invested
$1,322.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$59.61
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$103.64
Value
$102.7
PnL
+$0.57
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
Invested
$88.44
Value
$87.5
PnL
-$0.94
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Invested
$62.71
Value
$62.71
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
Invested
$36.62
Value
$34.92
PnL
-$2.19
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.16
Value
$11.9
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.