Will CA Lanús win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$37.21

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,228

Combined PnL-$26.05

No3 traders

Total Value$690.55

Total Shares1,564

Combined PnL-$11.16

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$25.63	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 44.7¢	$322.11	$313.51	-$8.6	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 44.3¢	$225.99	$221.76	-$4.23	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 44¢	$153.61	$155.28	+$1.67	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 56.8¢	$35.59	$35.38	-$0.21	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$18.16	$17.75	-$0.41	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	59% 52401-37126 (89527)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$2,768.29

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$25.63

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$322.11

Value

$313.51

PnL

-$8.6

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$225.99

Value

$221.76

PnL

-$4.23

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$153.61

Value

$155.28

PnL

+$1.67

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.59

Value

$35.38

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.16

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$0.41

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.